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To: marginmike who wrote (125607)	11/21/2002 11:33:21 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Respond to of 152472

The problem Ive found with most is their absolute stublorness in maintaining 1 position or the other. i think it depends on the time frame. one could be bullish on the short term but bearish on the long term. or vice-versa. one thing people need to understand for themselves is whether they are short-term or long-term investors, and whether their term investment approach (short or long term) is the same as their investment outlook (short-term bullish/bearish or long-term bullish/bearish). unless one is going to do short-term trades, a bullish/bearish short-term prognosis is neither here nor there. long-term, the market's going to go somewhere--even flatlining for a long time is effectively going down in real terms. i believe that somewhere will eventually coincide with the long-term historical norms for valuation. and the only way that can happen is if the market goes down, or else treads water for a couple decades. either option is not very bullish. if one is willing to trade short-term, then i agree with you that it is foolish to be stubborn about the near-term direction. the near term is not really a reflection of fundamentals, but of speculative noise. but in my case, i am not trying to trade the near term (although i have done so in the past). therefore, i must position myself based on my long-term opinion, and not let the long-term opinion be influenced by short-term noise. that is a form of stubbornness, i suppose. although i think it is more accurately described as clearly aligning long-term outlook with long-term approach--many long-term bears get hurt because, in spite of their correct outlook, their approach is short term and therefore misaligned with their outlook (many long-term bulls get hurt simply because their outlook is wrong). of course, if anyone could convince me that the market is a fundamental long-term buy, i'd be happy to buy. but i have yet to see any such compelling argument. instead, the arguments one sees are things like sentiment indicators, or else fundamental arguments built using shoddy pro forma earnings and flawed methodoligies like the Fed model. even with these permissive methods, which are unreasonably bullish imo, the return on the market is only about 4-5%, compared with 11% historical return. so i think it makes sense to continue with a long-term bearish stance for me personally.