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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gersh Avery who wrote (41059)	11/21/2002 12:15:21 AM
From: Joseph Silent	Respond to of 52237

Gersh, I do believe you have hit upon the key here. I don't pretend to understand Don's system and it has worked well the few times I've had a chance to watch the market for small stretches of time, except for a couple of "negated" situations. I know that "time" has a big part to play in his system. Anyway, I'm guessing that his system cannot be expected to work flawlessly at extremes, e.g., the 1530 SPX top you mention. For example, many such signals are similar to the large class of oscillators that attempt to capture "up", "down", "too much" and "too little" in price movement. In (strongly) trending markets they (really) tend to fail. I think his "negation" is triggered if the expected move does not occur within a given window of time and price runs in the opposite direction. I cannot say for sure. Perhaps one day he will tell us, in exchange for an exotic and rather rare East Asian dumpling recipie I can give him. :) In any event, signals that rely on some sort of cyclical behaviour (or loosely, "somewhat humdrum up and down behaviour with data that's been detrended using standard detrenders") are suspect at the extremes of ranges, and are more so in markets that make violent moves (i.e., unstable, with more uncertainty).