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Technology Stocks : Oracle Corporation (ORCL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (17655)	11/21/2002 8:19:32 AM
From: MeDroogies	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19079

I think most of the worst is behind us, but the bubble is still having lingering effects. While the recovery has never met my expectations, I can say that it's progressing evenly. The problem is the bubble was so large, getting any stock back up to the levels of 3 years ago will be tough in the near term. Since the US has effectively moved from a manufacturing economy to a service economy over the last 35 years, recoveries will not occur the same way they used to. We saw this in 1992, when a great recovery began, but wasn't adding jobs for about 6-12 months. With productivity gains continuing to expand, that time frame can continue to lengthen from 6-12 to 12-18. Add to that the fact that we were in an overemployed situation (with thousands of jobs paid for by now worthless options), and you have a situation that makes people feel that something is "wrong" with the current economy. Fact is, by historical standards, this was a mild recession and a slow recovery, but we are so used to growth we've forgotten what recessions and recoveries mean. In my industry (media), I watch younger colleagues making terrible errors that more experienced friends of mine would never make in a recessionary time. Why? Because in the boom years young, inexperienced "go-go" types were promoted. They are currently being bailed out by the media advertising boomlet, but very few of them have positioned themselves for long term survival. I'm not a "crash and burn" bear, and I know there are still alot out there. But I've always tried to be realistic, and changing times mean changing views. I think ORCL is well positioned in its sector and will continue to thrive (especially when LE stops racing yachts...ORCL does better whenever he focusses on business). But I think the current rally is going to be short lived (2-3 months?). That wouldn't be too unusual, though. The 70's are what I would use as the best comparison to this period...and this kind of cycle was pretty typical then.