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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Mullens who wrote (29212)	11/21/2002 1:29:06 PM
From: jackmore	Respond to of 196952

Qualcomm bets big on CDMA technology KALYAN PARBAT TIMES NEWS NETWORK [ FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 22, 2002 01:20:28 AM ] KOLKATA: The Supreme Court is yet to crown it king, but San Diego-based Qualcomm Inc believes “CDMA-based telecom technologies will deliver true bang for the buck in India”. In a closed-door global analysts meet in London on November 13, the Qualcomm management has told core investors “it is betting big-time on the unfolding CDMA opportunity in India in strategic partnership with Reliance Infocomm”. Here’s a peek into what transpired on November 13. “Qualcomm envisages 6m CDMA subscribers in India in calendar year ’03, which would account for two-thirds of the country’s national cellular market-size (9m) right away...the 6m CDMA subscriber projection is qualified as a ‘conservative estimate’ compared to local operators’ expectations,” top analyst circles present at last week’s London meet told ET. “The CDMA take in India is likely to be similar to Qualcomm’s experience in China in the first year...handset subsidy will be a necessary tool for subscriber growth...Reliance Info is expected to initially source handsets from both LG and Samsung,” sources close to Qualcomm said. Qualcomm’s strategic ‘India projections’ come weeks ahead of Reliance Infocomm’s national roll out of CDMA-enabled WLL services on December 28. Qualcomm’s projections are clearly influenced by India’s paltry 1% wireless penetration. Qualcomm holds 4% in Reliance Infocomm — the country’s largest private player in the CDMA-powered limited mobility space with an 18-circle footprint. Qualcomm is slated to shell out $200m for its strategic holding in Reliance Infocomm. However, analysts at Salomon Smith Barney , who participated in the Qualcomm analyst meet, remain circumspect on Qualcomm’s new found optimism. “While Qualcomm’s main revenue growth prospects will come from the two developing markets (India and China), both will continue to be risky with limited visibility. The timing of CDMA revenues will hinge on the actual commercial service implementation by Qualcomm’s customers,” they said. It is well known that bulk of Qualcomm’s earnings emanate from licensing CDMA chip technology, which is the digital standard running mobile phones and other wireless devices. economictimes.indiatimes.com

To: Jim Mullens who wrote (29212)	12/5/2002 9:10:02 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Respond to of 196952

Jim, a belated welcome to the thread. It appears that someone is going to be wrong with these handset projections. This is a recent article about Chinese handsets, both GSM and CDMA. I am not sure how this is going to all play out but it is most likely that some handset makers are going to be squeezed out next year. Nokia's dream of 40% market share is fading faster than that Scandanavian summer. Ericy/Sony got to be vulnerable. Sure glad qcom dumped their handset business long ago ... mobile.163.com Title: Domestic Handsets. Danger behind the prosperity. (not full translation, just highlights) 1. lacking core technology. 2. over capacity. 3. price war. Some say Chinese domestic handsets makers are heading down the same path as color TVs. ..... domestic handset makers now approaches 30% market share ..... by 2003, it is expected to exceed 50%. ..... domestic handset makers are adding capacity, with the few lead brands reaching 10 million (assume per annum). In addition, there are many looking to enter the market .... ..... wireless subs in China now exceed 200 million. It is unlikely that new subs could exceed 50 million next year. Adding replacements, the total demand may be around 80 million. Supply ..... could exceed 150 million. ..... in order to be first to market, many domestic handset makers originally are nothing more than "label manufacturers", meaning they really do not have any R&D nor manufacturing capability but rather just utilize their licensing rights for unlicensed foreign manufacturers. Later, they might have added some production lines but they are still nothing more than assemblers with the guts mainly imported from Korea and Japan. ..... according to sources, some of Samsung's high end handsets commands a profit margin as much as 150%, an astronomical figure for the domestic manufacturers. For example Bird, per their annunal report .... their net profit was less than 3%. Kejian, a purer handset maker ..... net profit was barely 2%.