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Strategies & Market Trends : Moomin Valley (formerly Troll-free Zone) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Henry J Costanzo who wrote (744)	11/21/2002 4:26:33 PM
From: Moominoid	Respond to of 2852

I've been of course looking at previous tops of other B waves to see what today looks like using my autoregressive indicators. And it does look a lot like those (all on NDX): e.g. 25 October 2001 - B of 2 in my count. 4 Jan 2002 - B of wave 1 of the ending diagonal C wave down from the highs In both cases my indicators didn't indicator a top thought they did indicate the previous top. However there was a warning of a top approaching just before hand. Then I also looked at March 2000 when the 10 Mar 2001 was the top my system indicated and then new highs were reached on a closing basis (my model uses closes) on 27 March with no top indication. Well some hope still for bears. I'll explain the model to you if you like.... Moomin

To: Henry J Costanzo who wrote (744)	11/21/2002 4:47:22 PM
From: Moominoid	Respond to of 2852

The problem with the 5 of 5 isn't that it fails to reach new highs but that its internal structure doesn't look like an impulse wave. Of course if could be an ending diagonal but even then it looks like a mess.... Still that is the best interpretation I have. The other is that my old count holds but the bottom in early Nov is the complete wave 2 correction and now we are in wave 3.