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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (322217)	11/21/2002 4:10:55 PM
From: Karen Lawrence	Respond to of 769667

And it was identified as such a year later The recession officially started in March 2001 after Bush took office.

To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (322217)	11/21/2002 4:59:36 PM
From: jlallen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 769667

By that measure then, the recession is "officially" over since the economy is back in postivie growth territory..... JLA

To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (322217)	11/22/2002 12:00:37 AM
From: DavesM	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 769667

Kenneth, re:"The recession officially started in March 2001 after Bush took office." Maybe, the Clinton Administration was cooking the books so that it looked like the recession started after the change of Administration. LOL Recessions are now officially dated by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). When the NBER dated the recession as starting in March 2001, they had the following data: 1. Employment (a lagging indicator) reached a peak in March 2001 and then began to decline. 2. Industrial Production reached a peak in September 2000 and then declined for the next 12 months. 3. real manufacturing and trade sales reached a peak roughly November 2000. 4. real personal income had not fallen. According to the NBER's newest report 1. Employment (a lagging indicator) reached a peak in March 2001 then declined. -unchanged from the original report 2. Industrial Production reached a peak in June 2000 and declined for the next 18 months. - decline beginning 3 months earlier from the original report 3. Real manufacturing and wholesale-retail sales peaked in June 2000 and then dropped "until it plunged in September 2001". - decline beginning ~5 months earlier than the original report 4. Real personal income peaked in late 2000 and fell through late 2001 - the original report showed no decline in income. Further the traditional method of dating a recession was 2 straight quarters of declining GDP. When the NBER originally dated the start of the recession to March 2001, there was only one quarter of negative GDP (third quarter of 2001) and their call of a recession was somewhat controversial (The NBER explained, that because they used monthly data, rather than quarterly data, they had better resolution). Now latest data from the BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis?) have revised these GDP numbers. Now GDP for Q1 2001 has been revised down to -.6% from +1.3%, Q2 2001 has been revised to -1.6% from +.3%, and Q3 2001 has been revised to -.3% from -1.1...Three consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. There have been discussions, but no movement within the NBER to revise the starting date of the recession of 2001.