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To: Les H who wrote (3668)11/22/2002 7:48:16 PM
From: Les H  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 29596
 
Volatility premiums for Friday Nov 22, 2002

volatility index vs. 30-day actual volatility

S&P 100 (OEX) 475.04

VIX 26.73 - 0.64
30-day volatility 25.57 - 1.98
premium (discount) + 1.16 + 1.34

NASDAQ 100 (NDX) 1116.00 QQQ 27.75

VXN 46.49 + 1.79 QQV 38.54 - 0.05
30-day volatility 43.04 - 1.40 30-day volatility 37.68 - 2.15
premium (discount) + 3.45 + 3.19 premium (discount) - 0.86 + 2.10

Have to be wary watching the historical volatility fall on
flat to moderate down days like today. It gives further
room for the underlying index to rally and for the
VIX/VXN/QQV to fall. The visual equivalent is to see
the bollinger or trading bands move up when the index
eases down and then rallies back up to the upper bands once
again.