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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ajtj99 who wrote (16443)	11/21/2002 10:01:17 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

AJ: Nice post.

To: ajtj99 who wrote (16443)	11/21/2002 10:07:51 PM
From: Jeffrey S. Lillie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

ajtj, doing a little digging into $vxn and saw something intersting on the 3 year chart. In the lows on VXN in sept 00, July 01 and apr 02, there was an overshoot that occurred one to two months after the highs in the nas were in place for the rallies. In all cases, the VXN went significantly lower, BUT the index never got back to its highs from the month to two months previous. time period/VXN low/ overshoot low sept 00/52ish/40.56 july 01/51ish/43.90 apr 02/42ish/36.28 aug 02/45/no overshoot it just reversed up nov 02/42ish so far/ TBD So we have had tops in indexes and bottoms in VXN at 52, 52,42,45, and now we are at 42 which is the low end of the range. summary: VXN may go even lower, possibly as low as 36. But we are very close to a bottom. So close that I can taste it. This is for all data going back 3 years except dec 99 since i dont have that data. It encompasses all VXN lows in that period. jeff