Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Terry Maloney who wrote (206252)	11/26/2002 3:20:35 PM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

Hi Terry: Apologies to you and to the many, many folk who have PMed me over this past several weeks. The work load has been huge and I have just not had the time to catch up. I have been very busy on two fronts,..... providing some assistance to a couple of companies that I like, and maintaining a very up-to-date perspective on the current "selling season". Obviously, given the mad stock market action of late, it is important that the perspective remain accurate, hence I have spent an inordinate amount of time tracking the current "selling season". As you are well aware, many N.Y.-based analysts like to come out with their forecasts for the "selling season" right after the Thanksgiving holiday. At this end, I have already published our view weeks ago (that it is shaping up to be a real "clanger"), so I have had plenty of motivation to keep on top of things to ensure that the environment hasn't changed dramatically over the ensuing time frame (it hasn't). Several PMs have requested an update on some of the "juniors" that I have mentioned from time to time on the thread. I am very reluctant to get into detail on the thread as I see this as inappropriate use of the bandwidth. I will shortly be forwarding a commentary via PM to those who have requested this information. Finally, I want to underscore the fact that the economic markers that I track continue to highlight economic deterioration and provide no evidence of an economy that is in any form of "rebound" mode. This is especially so in the tech sector. For me, these markers spell out a single message with respect to the current market enthusiasm,.... which is that it is misplaced and doomed to flop as it has no real underpinnings. Sooner or later, the momentum players will start sliding quietly out the side exit and the next leg of the bear market will return. Unfortunately, this next leg is likely to be both brutal and swift, as the recent bout of mania-like activity has been more than over-done. When will the next leg down get underway? Who could possibly know for sure,.... but if asked to prognosticate, one would have to view the upcoming Q4 "warnings period" as a reasonable bet (and it should get underway next week) or even better, the post Christmas period as the poor "selling season" results become public knowledge and the "inventory blues" set in. Best, Earlie