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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Suresh who wrote (38444)	11/28/2002 12:18:03 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Respond to of 68617

Hi Suresh, It looks like you and both agree that the outlook for the next 2 quarters do not look all that rosy. A lot of firms have guided down numbers in a quarter that has been traditionally the strongest of the year. Demand for new PC is muted given that current software does not push the limits of the majority of machines out there and the lack of a power/memory hungry new killer applications. Given that PC's have traditional accounted for 50 percent of all electronic hardware spending on a dollar basis, that make the probablity of a return to the Y2K fed levels of the the late 90's and early 2000's unlikely. So we can look at the current correction as the growing pains of the economy adjusting to the lower, more sustainable run rate. All this is a pre-cursor to a interesting question though. Where does George W. figure into the your outlook given that an election is due in 2004. The President and the Republicans will be wanting to enter an election years with as positive an economy as possible in order to win votes. The means increase spending in the short term in order to jump start the economy. Increases in defense spending are already cushioning some sectors. The Internet II build out might jump start more techs if the government commits to a acclerated spending schedule. The negative is that Bush and his adminsitration have not been big public supporters of the technology and Silicon Valley. If they plan on pumping the economy up they need to start by at least next qaurter though so the spending has time to work its way through the system.

To: Suresh who wrote (38444)	12/2/2002 3:29:06 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Respond to of 68617

GLW LCD glass display business: Sold out in this segment. Expect it to grow 25 percent per year for next few years Only 25 percent penetration rates (not sure what segment this is). [Harry: Given that DVD seems to have stalled at 30 percent penetration, caution is advised.] Developing new glasses. Lowest cost producer in this segment in industry Very profitable business. Star performer. Also seeing signs of a semiconductor uptick. Expect it to uptick next year. Expect to see demand in steppers. [Harry: Note they called the uptick in fiber wrong earlier this years. Steppers: UTEK should benefit.] Fiber business still soft. Expect to to be break even next year. Exiting some businesses, speficially components. event2.streamx.us