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To: Paul Shread who wrote (60180)	11/22/2002 11:24:34 AM
From: marginmike	Respond to of 209892

agree but this sure does feel like short squeeze and those turn fast and furiously.

To: Paul Shread who wrote (60180)	11/22/2002 11:36:36 AM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 209892

<there is still no selling pressure here.> Agreed. With few sellers, a very little bit of buying can cause substantial price movement. However, we should be getting into the realm where there are few buyers as well. If you thought this was the bottom, you've probably bought it. Everybody was trying to get a jump on the favorable seasonals as well, which probably moved the January effect into November. I think it can saw a little higher through the holidays, if for no other reason than there just aren't a whole lot of motivated sellers here. The mufus appear to have staunched the flows for the time being. I don't know about the overseas investor, though. The dollar is hovering right at year lows, and the Euro continues to look good. Why in the world they would hold US assets is beyond me. If either group starts selling again, prices will fall quickly. Insider selling is returning now that we are past earnings season, especially in the gigacaps. Corporate cash flow doesn't look like it can support much in the way of stock repurchases for the time being (cept Dell of course). Have the institutional funds finished reallocating out of bonds and into equities yet? I don't know, but they've got to be a major factor in this rally, much like last years'. The odds bet longer-term (9-18 months) remains fresh lows, especially in Dow types. However, I'm being very patient in releasing the hounds. There's no hurry to get short. If it goes up, it will continue to do so quickly; if it goes down, it will probably do so grudgingly, barring some exogenous shock. BC

To: Paul Shread who wrote (60180)	11/22/2002 11:43:23 AM
From: Joseph Silent	Respond to of 209892

There appears to be an asymmetry in expectations when people in general talk about capitulation ..... I mean there seems to be a uniform search for capitulation from bulls at strong (local, not even global) bottoms. But I don't understand (or I haven't been observant enough to see) why we seem not to ask for capitulation from bears at local tops. Isn't some of that the issue here? For example, if one believes the market is being "taken" up against all common sense, wouldn't next week be ideal for more "taking" up because of low expected volume, making it ideal to give shorts more pain? If all of that makes sense, I wonder if (a) there are very big players very short from much lower levels, (b) how much the market knows about them, and (c) how much more pain they can afford or be willing to take. Just curious.