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To: Les H who wrote (206294)	11/22/2002 12:45:56 PM
From: Gersh Avery	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

another major "news" item that was not mentioned in the article, is the confirmation by "CIA sources" that the recorded message was really ObL. Perhaps that news flash was also a hoax. I do not believe that ObL is still alive. He is pure ash .. no DNA left to test.

To: Les H who wrote (206294)	11/22/2002 1:35:53 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Global Market Trading Strategy: Rally from Big Picture Support — Prices React But Downtrend Intact Raul Ruddleston Big Picture: On 10 October, the key global equity indices at long last had reached (or fell to within a hair's breadth of) our "big picture" downside attraction/support areas. Since then, most markets have climbed to the nearest relevant short-term upside attraction/resistance areas, and the S&P 500 managed to briefly break through the nearest resistance, suggesting that the recovery phase in global equity markets may not yet be completed. We continue to focus on the S&P 500 as a representative of global equity markets. On 10 October, the S&P 500 reached the big-picture downside attraction/support in the 760 area, from which we have since seen significant strength. Within the major downtrend (over the past 2.5 years), we have been aware that the orderly decline could give way to a period of disorder (capitulation) at some stage. We have not seen a disorderly phase and realise that it may yet take place. We have been viewing 760 as the "limit of order" and 675/666 as the "minimum move within a disorderly phase." Furthermore, although this market has achieved the minimum downside objective within the major downtrend and has rallied to briefly break short-term resistance at 907, no relevant bigger picture barrier has yet been broken. Until we see confirmation that this market is ready to move into a truly positive mode (a convincing break of the nearest bigger picture barriers at 1042/57, 1090/95), we view the current strength as only a temporary respite before a renewed decline (and a capitulation phase). Short-Term Situation: Under normal circumstances we would expect a recovery from a valid support/attraction area to take place in at least two stages. Regarding the current situation, that would mean stage 1: mainly short covering toward 907, and stage 2: broader buying interest (benchmark chasing) toward the bigger picture upside attraction areas around 1020/30, 1042/57. However, we have been concerned that if we are to enter a "disorderly" phase, then prices may not climb as high as expected. The fact that the S&P 500 pushed through resistance in the 907 region last week suggests that market participants could at least attempt to push prices through the obvious resistance around the August highs (955/65) toward 1020/30, 1042/57, before allowing the major downtrend to re-establish itself. Should such strength materialise, we would expect to see similar short-term strength in the other global equity markets. The Paradox: Paradoxically, what would appear to be the worst-case scenario from a short-term perspective (the S&P 500 fails to regain the 907 region and follow through to the upside and instead drifts back below support in the 812/07 area into the "disorderly phase" toward 675/666) could prove to be more positive from a bigger picture perspective. Now that we can see "value" being built above the market for the first time in the 2.5-year bear market, a failure to rally would represent a move away from "value," thereby providing the potential for significant strength at some stage from lower levels (following the disorderly phase). Conversely, strength from the current area toward upside attraction areas could "capture capital" that could then be vulnerable to destruction in keeping with our big-picture story (Debt, Deflation, Destruction of Capital). morganstanley.com