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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alastair McIntosh who wrote (7038)	11/22/2002 1:48:23 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Respond to of 95536

RE: "It is my guess that we are setting up for a great shorting opportunity in January." "January", or February/March. It will be a tough call unless it is made easier by price exuberance. The fundamentals are improving. The BTB and the announced capital spending budgets have very short term significance, monthly or quarterly. The IT spending is a red herring. Business does not need much more PC and server hardware or "enterprise" software. IT spending will be for entirely new capability. Of course, for many, a MSFT operating system that doesn't crash many times a day, is new capability. I look at out of the money, 6 month month out call options. They are not reflecting any real intermediate term exuberance. Hopefully, I will get the opportunity to sell these calls next year. If I do, you will get a shorting opportunity. Just remember to be nimble. Things are better than you are giving them credit for.