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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Suresh who wrote (38449)	11/24/2002 9:45:48 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Respond to of 68614

Hi Suresh, I have a lot of the same concerns that you do about the underlying fundamental strength of the market. As you pointed out the economy is still adjusting to the fact that the run rate of the economy needs to be quite a bit less than in the heady days of the 90's and early 2000. On the other hand though the technicals indicate the market still have a ways to rally. Technically, we don't violate the longer term down trend till we cross 1588, so we are still in a bear. That is still quite a few points away. A lot of people have lost a lot of money fighting the trend the last few years, so I am not willing to go short quite just yet.

To: Suresh who wrote (38449)	11/24/2002 10:54:30 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Respond to of 68614

Rumor floating around on KLAC. Message 18268223

To: Suresh who wrote (38449)	12/4/2002 4:55:25 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Respond to of 68614

Well ADCT did not say the magic words in the CC. Still no T1 growth. They expect RBOC's to spend as little as possible. Possible VZ at 13 percent of Rev, SBC at less than 10 percent of rev. Most carriers still in conserve cash mode. ADCT growth in Q due to HDSL and Cable telephony growth at rates higher than expected. Do not expect a repeat next Q. Overall expect H1 2003 to be down still. H2 2003 will flatten out after that. Europe cable telephony turning around slower than expected despite fact cable companies in Europe are in good cash positions. US cable companies are in a weak cash position. Next year is a transition year for cable telephony. If cable companies decide to deploy VoIP and IP service could be a good year for ADCT. Big if though. Expect strong software sales. Seeing some push out though as going after larger contract. Projection for 2003 do not include big RBOC contracts though.Growth from non-telecom like entertainment for unified billing capabilities. Expect HDSL to be spotty at best. Expect growth though. Sales 27 per international Guidance: Expect seasonal weakness as normal Rev 200 mil EPS 3 to 5 cent loss Broadband will be 65 to 70 percent of sales Integrated systems 30 to 35 percent of sales No tax rate as have losses to offset, 677 mil total losses or 84 cents per share expect sales to uptick rest of 2003 from Q1 levels GM 30 to 40 percent. 30 percent if 200 mil rev, 40 percent if 225 mil rev Results in Q: GM 32 per vers 26 per q-q, higher due to lower fixed cost + ousourcing more outsourcing now 30 per of sales DSO 47 days dwon from 54 day q-q turns 7.2 times vers 4.6 time q-q Deprec 22 mil vers 25 mil q-q Cap Ex 9 mil vers 14 mil q-q HDSL sales up 12 per q-q Cable telephony sales up 12 per q-q software lower than expected due to push outs system integration lower than expected removed 800 mil in Op ex in last year, reduced factory space by 27 percent, let go 37 per of work force Free Cash flow in q negative 8 mil Cash 456 mil, expect 100 to 135 mil tax refund in Q1 2003 Long term debt 11 mil Leases 249 mil.