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To: AllansAlias who wrote (60264)	11/22/2002 7:17:22 PM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

I still think 5-15% move up is playable here. I do agree next big move will be down but be after months of sideways grind through march. I think the play here is a collar, or CC or naked poots out till JAN where we will end within 5% of where we are now.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (60264)	11/22/2002 8:04:20 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

Well, everything I'm looking at says this is near (within .2% to 3% according to my candle study last night) a major top, and we sell off 40-48% from this top. This is based on stuff that's lined four times previously in this bear with where we're at now on the VXN, as well as Les' scans on the NDX showing the levels we're at are similar to those of Dec. 5, 2001 and May 21/22 2001. Furthermore, the candle on the NDX we got today is more closely associated with a top than a mid-trend move. There are lots of things pointing to this being a top. The SPX has rallied between 21.6% and 24.5% in the major rallies in this bear. No more. The rally is now at 22%. That leaves maybe 2% more, especially tough too with resistance at 950 and 960 SPX. We had a bottom in March/April 2001. We had a high March 2002. You want something different in 2003? OK, we'll have a low in March / April. The selloff from highs like this has averaged 4-1/2 months, which is that time frame. I am finding very little to get bullish about when there are so many things screaming top in this neighborhood. Add in the turns next week and you've got a situation that almost mirrors Dec. 5 last year, when you and everyone here was going ga-ga over the Dec. 7 turn date that all were going to short. What's changed?