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To: Les H who wrote (3686)	11/23/2002 10:45:30 AM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29596

Amateur Investor's Weekend Market Analysis Click this link below to see the charts: amateur-investors.com (11/23/02) All three major averages (Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500) were able to break above previous resistance levels on Thursday and closed near or above them on Friday. The Dow has gained nearly 24% since its low on October 10th. If it continues higher next week there are three possible resistance levels to watch which are at its 200 Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 8950, its August high just above 9100 (point A) or at its 200 Day Moving Average (MA) near 9200. The Nasdaq has gained around 33% since its October 10th low and broke above its previous resistance area near 1425 on Thursday. However the Nasdaq is now approaching a more significant area of resistance in the 1495-1510 range which is associated with its 200 Day EMA (1495) and 200 Day MA (1510). The S&P 500 has gained nearly 22% since October 10th and also was able to break just above its previous resistance area on Thursday near 925. If the S&P 500 continues higher next week look for its next area of significant resistance near 965 which is associated with its 200 Day EMA (blue line) and August high (point B). Considering the gains that have occurred since October 10th you have to expect that eventually there will be some type of multi-week pullback. The Contrarian Indicators especially the Bullish-Bearish readings and the Volatility Index (VIX) continue to show increasing bullishness and complacency among investors. The Bullish-Bearish readings now show a % difference around 25% as the % of Bearish Investment Advisors continued to drop while the % of Bullish Investment Advisors remained unchanged this past week. Normally when the % difference gets above 30% that can be a sign of a nearing top so this is something which will need to be watched over the next few weeks. Meanwhile the VIX continues to drop (point C) although it still is above the significant level around 20 which has been associated with nearing tops in the past (points D, E, F and G). If the market continues higher watch the VIX closely for any more movement to the downside. One thing I would like to point out is that the VIX got rather low during the Double Bottom pattern in 1998 (point H) which was accompanied by a minor pullback (point I) however the market didn't undergo a huge sell off before trending higher again. With the major averages rallying significantly since the October 10th bottom you have to expect we will see some type of pullback may develop in the weeks ahead. The chart of the Dow from 1998 shows that it rallied nearly 27% from early October (point J) until the end of November (point K) while completing a "Double Bottom" pattern. The Dow then pulled back during the 1st two weeks of December (points K to L) before rallying again going into Christmas (points L to M). As mentioned in the beginning the Dow has rallied nearly 24% since the October 10th low of 2002 and if by chance it rallies back to around 9100 then that would lead to a 27% gain as well. The question is will a similar pullback develop during the 1st two weeks of December this year like occurred in 1998?