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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: crustyoldprospector who wrote (22282)	11/23/2002 4:57:06 PM
From: Joseph Waligore	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Crusty, do you know anything about the guy who is reporting on that memo? Is he reliable? It sure sounds bad.

To: crustyoldprospector who wrote (22282)	11/23/2002 6:18:08 PM
From: nspolar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

crusty, the recent btb stunk as well. Any rebound would appear to be dependent on corporate capex, which does not appear to be picking up. In my neck of the woods it would appear cos are still pulling in their horns, maybe not even at the midpoint of retrenchment. I thought this interesting as well, re the oil patch. biz.yahoo.com Mulva may be the best CEO in the oil biz today. I don't think he would be this drastic if he thought the econ was at a bottom. I never went in to tech expecting anything more than a bear rally. I was hopeful it would go higher than where it is presently at, like maybe sox 400 plus. Looks doubtful now imo. Still it has been a pretty good rally off the bottom. Back to Gayer's SPX EW analysis, I took it and applied it to the comp - it is just as applicable there imo. If it turns out to be correct this next bottom will definitely be one to pile in on, and at that bottom the comp will be a very low number, definitely well down in the 3 digit range.

To: crustyoldprospector who wrote (22282)	11/23/2002 9:28:27 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Respond to of 36161

RE: "This has not yet reached the newswires but a friend of mine at KLA-Tencor has told me that meetings were held this week wherein a FIFTY percent revenue decline is being forecast by upper management." Peak quarterly revenue in the 2000-2001 year was $601M. Next quarter's revenue forecast was $330M. Another $30M decrease and you have your FIFTY percent revenue decline from peak revenue. Since the author doesn't state revenue decline "from what", my guess is that "what" is the peak.