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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (16855)	11/24/2002 5:16:40 AM
From: 1podstock	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

"Bellwether company makes terrible internal announcement" by John W Perry 23 November 2002 02:30 csf.colorado.edu This has not yet reached the newswires but a friend of mine at KLA-Tencor has told me that meetings were held this week wherein a FIFTY percent revenue decline is being forecast by upper management. KLA-Tencor is one of those companies that don't make the news much like Intel or IBM and yet KLA-Tencor sells to all chipmakers (including Intel and IBM). In a sense, they are actually a more primary barometer than the chipmakers themselves. Apparently, Asian buyers are cancelling and Intel and IBM are pushing back purchase plans indefinitely. KLA-Tencor has never announced a loss but they are certain to for the next four quarters according to my friend's account of the meetings. They make equipment which is pivotal to spotting defects on chips and account for the extraordinary reliability of microchips. Thus, if one is putting "two and two together to make four", it appears that the next calendar year will not only feature sharply reduced consumer spending but also, that business investment, where everybody was thinking this was "the bottom", is actually about to drop to precipitously lower levels. As LW'ers know from my recent posts, I feel that the stock market rally is purely an artifact of the interest rate cut along with the last of refi cashout money being spent. Only recently has evidence surfaced of consumers turning tail. While not being inclined to speculation, I have to say that bears who are so inclined can expect 2003 to be the banner year for investments in reverse index funds, put options, put leaps, and so on. Optimism is peaking on Wall Street but the real world is delivering anything but optimistic signals. The "bottom" lies ahead, not behind. Perry