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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (7067)	11/24/2002 11:45:16 AM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95530

>> 7% drop in demand had not materialized and they were adding capacity to accommodate a brisk increase in orders for PC products. Did anybody pickup on that? Yeah, everyone did, whether long or short. Very few earnings reports scheduled for next week. And they are mainly negative comparisons, unfortunately. How far can we coast on the "not as bad as feared" Q reports from Q3 ? The short trading week gives a likely excuse for a retrace. Though I hope we will not give up a lot of our gains from the past seven weeks. If on the other hand, the expected retrace does not occur, and if we have good consumer shopping numbers, and if we get another good unemployment claims number this week, well then the rally should continue through the end of the year. The only bad news can come from politics. And with congress in recess, maybe that will diminish also. Good luck to all. And I hope the shorts were able to cover early. Sarmad

To: Return to Sender who wrote (7067)	11/24/2002 12:36:04 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95530

I think the key to the report is how finely tuned TSMC is to changes in chip demand. If the market starts believing some "real thing" scenario, it will be time to use price rises for profit taking. There is NO "real thing" waiting, coiled for explosive lift-off. There are only careful, deliberate additions for advanced technology and for increasing production of advanced products. On the flip side, the recent slowdown is just the reaction to big percentage jumps in orders in the first half of 2002 which were, perhaps, too big. There will be another round of big percentage jumps in 2003 despite current anemic capital spending plans. Capital spending plans have 1 month to 1 quarter visibility. With advanced production at 93%, any increased end user demand will require capital expenditure.