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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: PuddleGlum who wrote (14185)	11/24/2002 12:30:07 PM
From: Jeffrey S. Lillie	Respond to of 57110

Hey Puddle, I'm not in anyway shape or form looking for this top to break down like we rose up from the october lows. I think we will get a 1-2 week pullback from the highs of maybe 8-10% then make another stab at the highs, but most likely not getting there. that next lower peak is out around the end of 2nd or third week of dec. then we start to fall again. how low do we go? Who the heck knows. there were a lot of things in your post that are valid for the bullish case. The one that i am most aware of is the longer term charts. the monthlies look like the only way they can go is up. Concerns me a bit for my longer term bear case. But, just as in a bull market where things can stay pegged at the top for long periods of time, i believe it is possible to do the same in a long term bear which i believe we may only be halfway done with. quick comment on vix. vix has spent half of the last three years under 30. I suspect it will be back over 35 within a month and wont see 30 again for another 3-4 months. it just may go to 25 this week before rising though. jeff