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To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (206571)	11/24/2002 7:30:09 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

what's happening now doesn't begin to compare with real estate prices in 90-94? i don't recall that period being called a deflation or a depression.

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (206571)	11/24/2002 9:35:40 PM
From: reaper	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

oh, ok, i get it. you are arguing that inflation is going up today and presenting as evidence the fact that NYC rents increased in the late 1990s. look, certain prices are always going up and going down. when rents were soaring insurance and phone calls (for example) were cratering in price due to excess capital in those two businesses (among others). now insurance is rising (due to the excess capital being destroyed by the bear), phone is still declining and rents are collapsing. goods prices are falling and will continue to fall. those of you assuming a fall in the dollar (Haim -- i don't think you're one, though i don't remember for sure) will be dis-appointed by how little inflation that 'imports' as the crash in US demand will continue to push prices DOWN in a world beset with excess capacity (does anyone think aluminum is going to go UP in price if non-US investors pull their capital, the dollar falls, and US consumption is impaired? come on...) the big surprise will be what happens to 'services' inflation when the excess human capital deployed in those businesses is also exposed... i'll keep my long treasuries, thanks Cheers