To: SOROS who wrote (9789 ) 11/27/2002 10:54:14 PM From: westpacific Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 89467 Greenie vs. the H&S Top Everyone knows that the major stock market indicies formed record-setting H&S topping patterns a couple years ago, suggesting that a decline to less than 500 on the S&P is a lead pipe cinch. A 50%+ decline in the indicies would probably lead to panic in the markets, sending them much farther down. Greenie knows this, just as we do. And my thesis is that he is determined to defy and overcome it with unlimited money creation, just as he intends to defeat deflation. In speeches and congressional testimony he has spoken openly of the Fed's power to create money without "meaningful limit". To fight deflation he has suggested (and probably already implemented) a strategy of printing up money to buy up treasury bonds, and even corporate bonds, to inject cash into the economy. RR has correctly observed that the stock market is now the focus of the Fed. Heck, they've already done all they can for the economy in terms of lower rates and plenty of credit. That has not been completely successful in jump-starting the economy, so it might just be time for more "unconventional" measures (Greenie's term). So, suppose that the full force of Fed money creation is directed toward the goal of reviving the stock market. There would be no "meaningful limit" to the number of futures and options contracts which could be purchased by the "long of last resort". This might also explain the huge short selling of gold futures by the commercials. They can just keep selling and selling without "meaningful limit". Former Fed governor Wayne Angell recently opined that the Japanese central bank should intervene in this manner in the Tokyo stock market, so why not here, too? Bottom line: this is a deadly serious game for the powers that be. A meltdown in the markets would spell political disaster of unimaginable proportions and unpredictable consequences. Having created the conditions for a market bubble, now they are desperate to keep its natural downside consequences from destroying them and their system. Fed manipulation of the stock markets would completely undermine the lessons of history, the teachings of Dow Theory, and the disciplines of technical analysis. None of them would apply any more if unlimited liquidity were available when needed to avert the natural course of the markets. Nothing like it has ever happened before, so it is entirely outside all experience and reckoning. In the meantime, all this money creation is setting the stage for a massive inflation against which the individual is powerless to protect himself. Gold is no refuge if the Fed is determined to hold the price at all costs, through asset sales and short sales. I see no way out of Greenie's evil box.