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Technology Stocks : XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. (XMSR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pcstel who wrote (400)	11/25/2002 11:16:11 AM
From: i-node	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3386

Oh! I am wrong about a lot of things. So being wrong about this would not be a novel concept. Well, it IS sort of funny ... ME accusing SOMEONE ELSE of being WRONG about a STOCK!!!<g> However! The financial backing you need may find it material that you lose money on every new (initial) subscriber. I just think it is totally anticipated by any professional investors in this company. And I don't think the subsidy is going to decrease to a large degree anytime soon. According to the CC they subsidy on the Skyfi is greatly reduced. They didn't provide specifics (nor were they asked) but I don't think they were lying about it. The SkiFi is clearly a big seller so far. Really? I'd love to see your basis for this statement. Hey, they originally forcasted they would need 4M subscribers to break even. This figure has been substantially reduced. Thus far, the company has executed PERFECTLY in every respect. And SIRI, the competition we thought would be there, has all but disintegrated -- not due to lack of demand but because they couldn't execute. It is a forecasting game, and anyone's forecast can be wrong. But in years of preparing and reviewing financial projections for smaller businesses, I've never seen one as close as these guys have been. They've done their homework. It is a speculative venture, but as speculation goes it looks pretty attractive. I think you're all balled up about these subsidies, which frankly, will go away in a very short period of time.

To: pcstel who wrote (400)	11/25/2002 2:43:35 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3386

The $180 sub acquisition number you use is dated. Per the 3Q call, biz.yahoo.com acquistion is now $120 (for 3Q) and anticipated $110 for 4q, reasons sited: lower subsidy especially SkyFi, piggybacking GM advertising, maturation of the retail network. As the OEM and retail market expands the sub costs drop pretty steadily. Sub 500,000 costs a heck of a lot less than sub 100,000. Other points: 70% activation rate on new GM cars leaving the lot. Churn rate was described as "very low", no actual number was given. Most subscribers paid six months or a year in advance. I think they are having a little more trouble with the SkyFi than they are letting on, however. There is a "clip" in some of the 98-99 luxury model cars that cause radio fuzz or noise. My girl friend had to exchange out the SkyFi for another model in her 99 Lexus. The shop (Best Buy)contacted XMSR and they were aware of the problem, and were "working on it". On the call mgt indicated 120,000 SkyFis were being shipped by mid-Dec. Best Buy only had two on hand (that was two weeks ago). Sales people were describing sales as brisk. I don't know if that's been corrected yet?