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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: zonder who wrote (7105)	11/26/2002 9:14:41 AM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95525

>> If anyone knows why people are buying NVLS at this price, I would appreciate it if you could let me know. Before you join the Koolaid gang, you might benefit to read this. Message 18270801 And another thing. What if someone wants to pay 36 USD for NVLS or xyz or abc. What is it about the shorters ? Are you guys puritanical kill-joys who see it as your duty and obligation to chastise profligate buyers, by causing them financial pain for their foolish purchase ? If shorters were such geniuses at discerning market moves, they would have BOUGHT NVLS when it was 20 USD. If they couldn't see that it was going up from 20, why does anyone think they can see it going down from 36 ? Just some thoughts. Good luck with you short, if you decide to undertake this hazardous mission. Disclosure. I have traded Novellus only once. In 2000, for 200 shares. Buying at 36, selling at 40 a couple days later. Sarmad

To: zonder who wrote (7105)	11/26/2002 10:51:17 AM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 95525

zonder, while I do not short, I hold no animosity versus those who do [unless they use phrases like 'shorting the hell out of XYZ' <vbg>]. In fact, some of my best friends short. :) FWIW: semi equipment stocks rise when their fundamentals look awful and start falling from their highs when fundamentals have never been better. Don't expect the market to suddenly 'wake up' and act otherwise. You can always make money shorting, even in a bull market, if nimble enough. A poster named advocatedevil has frequently done this with AMAT. You might send him a pm. Gottfried

To: zonder who wrote (7105)	11/26/2002 10:51:27 AM
From: SpecialK	Respond to of 95525

Zonder, not sure what your NVLS short target is, but my SWAG is best-case for a short is range bound between 30-36. I wouldn't expect it to go lower than 30 until later in Q1 possibly. Of course, the outlook may be improved by then.

To: zonder who wrote (7105)	11/26/2002 10:53:21 AM
From: The Ox	Respond to of 95525

Hi zonder, I think your choice of NVLS is right on if you are considering shorting a member of the SOX. Don's tables, posted last weekend, verify that it appears to be one of the most "overpriced" in the group, TER being another. However, I think there are better candidates to short based on Fundies alone. PHTN has a next year PE over 250 and a PEG over 10. It is in a higher profile sector, flat panel displays, which can be a darling of the bulls. PHTN has run up over 200% since the Oct 9 low. I think this table is worth another look: Message 18267800 NOTE: remember to click RESPOND to view the table the way it was intended!! Good luck with your decision. I would caution anyone looking to go short that the market has started leaning up, instead of down. Whether this is just another bear trap, is still up to debate, imo.