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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: zonder who wrote (7108)	11/26/2002 9:50:03 AM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95530

I think a good case can be made for the entire semi equipment group being overvalued. So NVLS should fall with the group which will follow the SOX down if the SOX falls. In other words there is no real reason to single out NVLS from the entire group based on fundamental analysis. It will fall or rise along with the rest of the stocks associated with the SOX. All these stocks are overvalued on a traditional basis. The outlook is poor but as the INTC upgrade points out today there may be some hope for improving fundamentals. If INTC makes more money they could raise their cap ex. The market and the semiconductors in particular are overbought but this can and most likely will get even more overbought. This has been a very strong technical rally. The bulls will argue that the fundamental justification for the rally will be revealed soon enough. The bears will argue that this has been nothing more than another bear market rally. I think its going to take a while longer to find that out for sure. Why not wait to short until the VXN is under 40, the VIX hits 20, the equity put to call ratio makes a few closes below .50 and the difference between bullish and bearish investment advisors is 30% with the bulls really pounding the table? Or do you think we have already topped out on this rally and why? RtS

To: zonder who wrote (7108)	11/26/2002 9:56:49 AM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Respond to of 95530

>> Hmm. Sorry if I hurt your feelings with my intended short on NVLS. Please be assured that my feelings were not hurt in the least. I only wanted to spare you the fate of one Robert O from the trading thread who lost two minor fortunes within a month shorting what he thought were over-valued stocks. You can either burn a couple $hundred K, or read his parting post. By the way, his irresistible object of desire was Nvidia, which posted loses, then doubled in the following week. Good luck, anyway. Sarmad

To: zonder who wrote (7108)	11/26/2002 9:59:27 AM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95530

You appear to have chosen NVLS because of the PE numbers. NVLS has traditionally been the most profitable semi-equip and the leader in technology. Copper, a NVLS strength, is being rolled out. 2 times book, a trough floor for semi-equips, is ~$26 for NVLS. If you are making a short term move, you can choose to wait for the NVLS mid-quarter report after the market close today and watch the reaction, or you can bet on your prediction beforehand.

To: zonder who wrote (7108)	11/26/2002 10:07:19 AM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95530

Sorry about the gender presumption. And in case you did want to see Robert's post, Message 18251074 Sarmad

To: zonder who wrote (7108)	11/26/2002 11:10:34 AM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 95530

Anyway, I would appreciate comments on NVLS and thoughts on where "Koolaid gang" feels the semiconductor equipment is headed in the coming months. I Have bought and sold SFAM several times around an original buy at $12, sale in the $20's, buy on the way down... big buy at $3.33 and unloaded it after NVLS bought it.. Overall, I lost some money, but far less than just following the SOX down... Anyway, SFAM is a merger gone bad of two companies and I didn't want to gamble that it would pollute NVLS that pretty much tracks AMAT. IF I want to gamble on higher volatility, I'll trade LRCX around my long position... so I used my funds from selling SFAM to buy LRCX at $10 and $8.92 and have now booked gains at $13 and $15 and still hold a few of those shares. If I want a leader, I have AMAT... so no need for NVLS. I'm happy with my choice as LRCX was the only one so far to have broken out stockcharts.com Then again, it seems to have more "bungie power" due to lower share volume, I think. More proof siliconinvestor.com and I have booked profits and have a few shares still bought cheap, but I pulled out more $ than I put in so I can do it again should this rally fail. My overall, long term strategy is to add shares through volatility so my pile of shares grows and grows while I use the same dollars to trade in and out..maybe 20% around a core position.... more or less. Kirk