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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jim Mullens who wrote (125706)11/27/2002 11:07:54 AM
From: Stock Farmer  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 152472
 
LOL.. my forecasts are Gloomy? Good thing we have someone as wise as you on the board.

No need to point out to you that a company earning $0.44 per share priced in double digits has growth built into the price. That should be obvious to any investor with grade school maths and an IQ in the mid 80s.

So three pages of lecture that could be more succinctly summarized as "the business is growing" is true, but hardly useful in determination of whether $10, $20, $30 or $40 is a "fair" price.

Thank's anyway.

I know it's not news to you either that when we buy a stock, our profits depend solely on what we get for it when we sell it, plus any dividends we get in between. So if we are to rationally expect a profit, then we must come up with some sort of view as to what the person buying it from us will want to pay for it in the future, and some understanding of why this might be reasonable behavior.

So Qualcomm. A very simple model. Let's say I buy shares at $20 and I want to sell them in 15 years at a profit of 11% per year (average equity returns). So I want to see that in 2017 the average purchaser will rationally pay $95.69 per share. Either that or I have to assume that I can trick someone into paying $95.69 and that they don't have the foggiest clue what the company is worth. I prefer not to take long-term bets of that nature.

Assuming a share dilution of 4% per year, that makes 1.8x as many shares, or that our future investor is willing to pay $172.24 per today-share.

And maybe by then the 25 year old company has matured enough to a blue chip company and command a traditional PE for a healthy and growing big company of about 17 or so. Which would make expected earnings per share about $10 per today-share.

Which would be about 22x what they are earning today (or 16 x forward pro-forma earnings, if you like).

Is this gloomy? I don't think so, that's a 23% apr growth rate!

Or in terms that folks today might relate. If current results are based on 15 million handset sales per six months, then future results are equivalent to today's business doing 330 million handset sales per six months Which is roughly planetary saturation. And a fairly assigned PE of 17 implies a further two decades or so forecast sustained results at or above this level. In other words, my "gloomy" assumption has to be that CDMA will be the dominant wireless technology on the planet for the next 35 years. You call that "gloomy"? OK. I guess that makes you an optimist.

And this is the "certainty" calculation.

If I introduce the prospect for risk then things go down from there. By a lot more than adding on new widgets, gadgets and non-competencies that the company hasn't yet demonstrated. Particularly in light of other incompetencies that the company has already demonstrated. 15 years ago we didn't have the Internet.

Nevertheless, assuming that a dominant technology today will be dominant 15 years from now and then for 15 years thereafter is not exactly a pessimistic stance.

Feel free to disagree.

John.



To: Jim Mullens who wrote (125706)11/28/2002 12:03:17 AM
From: Jon Koplik  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 152472
 
NYT -- Wild Turkey Terrorizes Conn. Bank.

November 27, 2002

Wild Turkey Terrorizes Conn. Bank

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

Filed at 1:14 p.m. ET

PLAINFIELD, Conn. (AP) -- A wild turkey gave some bankers
and townspeople a run for their money two days before
Thanksgiving.

The hen turkey, weighing 15-20 pounds, staked out some turf
at the Jewett City Savings Bank Tuesday and cornered
customers as they tried to enter.

The bird first charged Dianne Beaulac, a customer service
representative at the bank.

``I got out of my car and he just came after me. I threw my
keys at it, my hair clip,'' she said. ``It chased me around
my car. It was hysterical. Then the police came.''

It took hours before town employees, crawling along the
building's roof and chasing the bird around the parking
lot, cornered it.

Donald Tetreault, a highway employee who raises geese and
chickens, finally caught the bird.

``I just grabbed hold of her wings and when she tried to
fly away I got a better grip.''

Animal control officials took the turkey to a state
forest.

Copyright 2002 The New York Times Company.



To: Jim Mullens who wrote (125706)11/28/2002 12:05:16 AM
From: Jon Koplik  Respond to of 152472
 
NYT -- Unafraid of Date, Turkeys Invade Staten Island.

November 23, 2002

Unafraid of Date, Turkeys Invade S.I.

By LYDIA POLGREEN

It is the week before Thanksgiving and turkeys are running
amok in Staten Island. But just try to stuff these birds.
They wander the streets and block traffic. They stare down
anyone who dares to oppose them. They resist the
well-meaning efforts of police officers who try to shepherd
them to safety.

Wild turkeys once roamed freely in all of what is now New
York City, but they were mostly hunted off by the beginning
of the 20th century. In recent years, though, turkeys have
reappeared in the city's wild spots, getting as far as
Inwood Park in Manhattan, probably having made their way
down through Westchester County, where the birds have
enjoyed a resurgence.

But how on earth did they get to Staten Island?

"They
just wound up here, literally on our grounds one morning,"
said Jeffrey Einbond, a deputy director at South Beach
Psychiatric Center.

About two dozen of the wild birds have taken up residence
in a patch of woods on the hospital's 40-acre campus, and
have made themselves very much at home. They roost in the
trees, wander the grounds and occasionally frighten people
when they burst into flight. (Contrary to popular belief,
turkeys can fly, and are actually quite good at it.)

Police officers from the 122nd Precinct went to the corner
of Seaview Avenue and Father Capodanno Boulevard yesterday
morning after receiving complaints that the birds were
blocking these two major arteries through the eastern edge
of Staten Island.

It was not the officers' first visit, and was not likely to
be their last. They herded the birds from the busy
intersection back to the safety of their unintended
sanctuary, with some success. But the birds did not stay
out of trouble for long.

In midafternoon a man in a blue minivan tried to park in a
lot behind University Hospital. A giant, preening turkey
blocked his path and would not budge. The man honked, the
man shook his fist, the man fumed. But the bird did not
move.

The birds have to go, the hospital has decided. But where?

The city parks commissioner, Adrian Benepe, said his staff
was trying to find a new home for them.

"Wild turkeys, while unusual, are not strangers to our
parks," Mr. Benepe said. He said he hoped the park system
could find a safer and less populated place for the birds
to roost.

"We do believe the population is more at risk this time of
year than other times," Mr. Benepe deadpanned. "But we
haven't seen any people walking around in the woods with
blunderbusses dressed as pilgrims trying to re-enact the
first Thanksgiving."

Copyright 2002 The New York Times Company.



To: Jim Mullens who wrote (125706)11/28/2002 12:07:26 AM
From: Jon Koplik  Respond to of 152472
 
San Francisco Chronicle -- From gobblers to goners in Marin?

November 27, 2002

From gobblers to goners in Marin?

County considers thinning wild turkey population

Peter Fimrite, Chronicle Staff Writer

They're wild, they're cute, and they gobble, but the free-roaming turkeys of Marin County soon may have a rendezvous with the roasting pan.

They're multiplying so fast that the Marin Municipal Water District is considering trapping them or sending armed rangers out on a wild turkey hunt.

"Their numbers have just exploded," Mike Swezy, the natural resources specialist for the water district, said of his burgeoning band of big birds. "I guess it's the revenge of the turkeys."

Libidinous to a fault, the turkey flock has grown at a frightening pace, scampering over sensitive watershed next to Mount Tamalpais and creating a nuisance by defecating on automobiles and competing for food and space with native birds who were there long before the turkeys.

Residents in nearby Fairfax think the government's eradication plan is for the birds and would rather see the turkeys stay. But the problems persist.

Although turkeys can be beautiful in the wild and have a place in America's heart going back to the Founding Fathers, many naturalists consider them pests.

Swezy says the feathered hordes number at least 100 on water district land and compete with native ground nesting birds for seeds and insects. They also gobble copious amounts of acorns, threatening regeneration of oak trees, which already are endangered by sudden oak death disease.

Flocks of a half dozen to as many as 50 birds are spotted every day defiantly pecking around the water district's ranger station on Sky Oaks Road, sometimes leaving deposits on vehicles.

TOMS CAN BE AGGRESSIVE

Besides making a lot of noise from their nighttime roosts in trees, Swezy says, the males can be aggressive.

Water district officials have asked the California Department of Fish and Game to assist them in removing the turkeys, but district officials say the state has not been particularly helpful. When they asked the state for help, the district officials' requests were "met with little cooperation."

The problem birds are actually believed to be descendants of turkeys released in 1988 by the Department of Fish and Game on a nearby ranch at Loma Alta for hunting purposes.

That small flock has grown to thousands in wildland areas overseen by the Marin County Open Space District, the state Department of Parks and Recreation,

the Golden Gate National Recreation Area and the Point Reyes National Seashore, all of which have joined the water district in an effort come up with an eradication plan.

The irony is that the water district must get approval to remove the renegade birds from Fish and Game, the very organization responsible for releasing them back in 1988.

Although turkeys are considered non-native, there is fossil evidence that a species of turkey existed in California at the end of the Pleistocene Era, some 12,000 years ago.

HISTORY OF TURKEYS IN STATE

Modern turkeys were not brought to California until 1877, when a colony of them was started on Santa Cruz Island, in Southern California. The problem did not begin, however, until 1928 when the Department of Fish and Game started breeding and releasing them for hunting all around the state.

Scott Gardner, the Department of Fish and Game's wild turkey biologist, says the practice was altered slightly in 1952 when the department began trapping free-roaming turkeys in other states and releasing them in California in an attempt to establish a wild population.

Those releases continued, with the support of the National Turkey Federation and other hunting groups, until lawsuits by environmental organizations stopped the practice in the late 1990s.

As of 10 years ago, when the last count was made, there were 100,000 wild turkeys throughout the state, and Gardner admits the numbers have probably multiplied since then. Naturalists and native species experts now consider wild turkeys a problem all over the state.

"For Fish and Game to monkey around with what is supposed to be out there, I think, is wrong," Swezy said.

Fish and Game officials are working on a statewide management plan, but Gardner says the report won't be ready for at least a year.

"Marin County can't legally just go out and shoot them," Gardner said. "And they can't capture them because there is no place left to release them. They can have a hunting season. That's the only way they can take turkeys."

Swezy says the land is a wildlife preservation area where hunting is not allowed, so open season is out of the question. He says, however, that they may be able to have a hunt like the one in 1989 in which rangers shot 140 wild pigs that had been rototilling the land and donated them to St. Anthony's Dining Room and other charities.

It is an idea that is already drawing the ire of local residents.

"Everyone who uses the back country for recreation is appalled by this," said Gordon Wright, a Fairfax resident who often bikes and hikes in the area. "We all find turkeys to be a charming and reassuring presence. Nobody except the MMWD wants to eradicate them."

It is an attitude that goes back as far as Benjamin Franklin, who lamented in a 1784 letter to his daughter the fact that the bald eagle was chosen instead as the national bird.

"The turkey is in comparison a much more respectable bird," Franklin wrote.

Gardner says there is no real evidence that turkeys pose a threat to native wildlife or plants any more than peacocks do.

"It's not likely that we could get rid of all the turkeys or that we could prevent them from coming back," Gardner said. "We're not trying to shove turkeys down Marin County's throat, but this goes beyond Marin. That is why we're going to be a little bit cautious with it."

E-mail Peter Fimrite at pfimrite@sfchronicle.com.

© 2002 San Francisco Chronicle.



To: Jim Mullens who wrote (125706)11/28/2002 12:09:11 AM
From: Jon Koplik  Respond to of 152472
 
Boston Globe -- Wild [turkey] species thriving again in the Bay State.

11/27/2002

Wild species thriving again in the Bay State

By Trudy Tynan, Associated Press

SPRINGFIELD - Wild turkeys, which made gastronomic history at the first Thanksgiving in 1621, are thriving once again in Massachusetts.

Between 18,000 and 20,000 of the birds that had disappeared from Massachusetts 150 years ago are now scrabbling all around the Bay State. ''And there could be more,'' said Jim Cardoza, a state wildlife biologist, who almost single-handedly brought the wild turkey back to Massachusetts.

All of today's birds are descended from 37 wild turkeys that Cardoza, in his first assignment as a young biologist, moved from southwestern New York over two winters. He is still watching over his flock 39 years later.

The wild turkey had fallen on tough times. By the Civil War they had disappeared from New England as forests were cleared for farms and the tasty birds were sought for food and the feather trade. There were only 30,000 in the nation by 1930 and the farthest north they were found was Pennsylvania.

Now, thanks to similar restoration efforts, the National Wild Turkey Federation estimates there are more than 5.6 million of the uniquely American birds. Alaska is the only state without wild turkeys.

''It's a bird that disappeared, because of direct human influence and now has returned, because of our intervention,'' Cardoza said.

Unlike domesticated turkeys - which have been bred for breast meat, not brains, since they were first domesticated by the Aztecs - wild turkeys have sharp eyesight, keen hearing, and wily survival instincts.

Although they can fly, they rely primarily on their legs and their ability to fade into the forest shadows. A bronzed flock can seem to fill a woodland clearing in the blink of an eye, then disappear in another blink.

''You don't sneak up on a wild turkey. Or outrun one,'' Cardoza said.

It took him two winters in the early 1960s sneaking around the frozen hills around Olean, N.Y., armed with a rocket-powered net and a collecting permit, to round up the 37 wild turkeys that became the first flock to roam Massachusetts since the Civil War.

This story ran on page B6 of the Boston Globe on 11/27/2002.

© Copyright 2002 Globe Newspaper Company.



To: Jim Mullens who wrote (125706)11/28/2002 12:11:09 AM
From: Jon Koplik  Respond to of 152472
 
Chicago Tribune -- Turkey on the table poses for real thing.

--------------------
Turkey on the table poses for real thing
--------------------

Farmers say the traditional bird is vanishing; the only way to rescue it is to eat more of them

By William Mullen
Tribune staff reporter

November 27, 2002

CALAMUS, Iowa -- Every morning at 5, hours before he shows up to teach science at the Calamus high school, Glenn Drowns is hard at work at his farm, trying to keep a well-known American bird from going extinct.

That would be the traditional farmyard turkey, revered each Thanksgiving as a symbol of American abundance but now surviving only in small numbers.

The modern industrial versions of the bird are, of course, plentiful. Found plucked, dressed, frozen and shrink-wrapped in stores, often at less than $1 a pound, they are produced with almost assembly-line precision, 270 million a year.

But Drowns, 41, and other preservationist farmers fear the old-fashioned gobblers will vanish forever--unless more people can be persuaded to eat them.

The factory birds are engineered to grow up fast and with lots of white meat. They spend their entire lives inside, being conceived, hatched, reared, slaughtered and packaged without spending a single moment in sunlight.

All white and with short legs, they little resemble the darker, colorful, fan-tailed turkeys of the past. And according to Drowns, they aren't nearly as flavorful.

But a handful of giant turkey processors so dominates the market with cheap, conveniently packaged birds that most farmers quit raising traditional farmyard turkeys decades ago. Varieties that once strutted and preened by the millions--black Spanish, slate, buff, chocolate, auburn, white Holland and royal palm turkeys--now are almost gone.

That includes two varieties most people probably think of when they think of turkeys, the coppery American bronze and the artfully dappled gray, white, tan and black Narragansett. Those birds are generally portrayed on greeting cards and school bulletin boards alongside pious buckle-shoed Pilgrims.

Now each variety is down to fewer than 500 breeding pairs.

Descended from wild turkeys, the domestic turkey has a complex history, beginning with specimens Christopher Columbus took from Central America to Spain. European farmers soon began developing local varieties through selective breeding.

If the Pilgrims at the first Thanksgiving dinner in 1621 served turkey, it would have been wild ones they hunted. A few years later, however, an English domestic variety, the Norfolk black, returned to the New World with 17th Century British settlers, and all present-day varieties probably trace back to those settlers' flocks and the wild turkeys they mingled with.

`A lot less around'

The dire straits of the old-fashioned turkeys became apparent in 1998 when the American Livestock Breed Conservancy, a national group working to conserve genetic diversity in farm animals, conducted a national turkey census.

"There were a lot less around than almost anybody imagined," Drowns said.

A once-popular Midwestern variety, the royal Nebraskan, appears to be extinct. Drowns said only 13 fawn-colored chocolates, the most common turkey on Southern farms before the Civil War, are alive, nine toms and four hens, and fewer than a dozen auburns survive.

Since he was in grade school in Idaho, Drowns has been passionate about "heritage" farming: raising old plants and animals modern agriculture has abandoned for more profitable, highly engineered hybrids.

In 1988 he bought a 40-acre farm east of Calamus, about 30 miles northwest of Davenport, and renamed it the Sand Hill Preservation Center.

There he, his wife, Linda, and their two teenage sons grow seed for more than 2,000 varieties of rare farm vegetables. They also raise 3,000 to 4,000 chickens, ducks, geese, guinea fowl and turkeys, representing scores of rare and endangered breeds and subgroups of breeds, called varieties.

"I grow and maintain things viewed as worthless by large-scale commercial interests," Drowns said.

Drowns is among a small network of preservationists around the country devoted to saving the old turkey varieties. Most of them, like Drowns, hold down other jobs to pay the bills, largely volunteering their time for preservation efforts.

They couch much of their appeal to saving the old birds in the scientific jargon of preserving gene pools and biotic diversity. Emotionally, what seems to drive them is the realization that modern life can erase the beauty of the past almost before anyone knows it's threatened.

"A good bronze turkey should have the color of a shiny copper penny gleaming in the sun," said Dr. Frank Reese, a Lindsborg, Kan., anesthesiologist who also runs a family turkey ranch passed on by his father.

Beyond their visual appeal, the old turkey varieties should be maintained simply because they make good food, Reese said.

"The flavor and the texture of the meat of these traditional turkeys is so vastly different from the mass-produced turkeys," he said. "It's the difference between eating a garden tomato fresh off the vine and a tomato from a tube in a supermarket."

Through much of the nation's history, farmers looked upon turkeys as tasty, low-maintenance livestock.

Independent and good at foraging for wild foods, turkeys were allowed to roam in the woods from early spring to late autumn. Then farmers gathered them back into a flock.

"The thing was, a lot of turkeys from neighboring farms went to the same woods for the summer, mingling and breeding with turkeys from other farms," said Craig Russell, president of the Society for the Protection of Poultry Antiquities, which works to promote preservation of heritage farm fowl.

"It was important that every farm family chose its own distinctive turkey variety, unlike any nearby," Russell said. "When they all went into the woods to retrieve their birds, each family knew which turkeys belonged to which farm."

Turkey `drives'

Farm communities used to pool their surplus birds for a turkey "drive," in which massive flocks were herded like cattle to distant city markets, shepherded by men with long switches and trained dogs.

"Sometimes they went hundreds of miles," Russell said. "They were doing turkey drives in Texas until the 1950s."

Developed for genetic traits that make them more profitable, factory turkeys grow fast, just 12 weeks from hatching to the 12-pound birds that will grace so many Thanksgiving tables. It takes traditional birds 24 weeks to grow that big.

But the mass-produced turkeys are so obese and clumsy that they can barely walk. They are incapable of mating and are artificially inseminated. They also lack immunity to a host of diseases that don't faze their farm cousins.

For that reason, the preservationists say, the genetics of the old birds may someday be needed to save the modern ones.

"If a new disease popped up that our commercial turkeys were not immune to, it could sweep through and kill off a huge portion of them," said Jerry Johnson, executive director of Garfield Farm, a Kane County living history museum that keeps a small flock of Narragansett turkeys.

"That would be a disaster for our food industry. If that happened, we would certainly want to have these old types of turkeys to go back to, looking for genetic immune traits we would need to breed into the modern birds to protect them."

Drowns said the best way to save the old turkeys is to get people interested in eating them again, creating an incentive for farmers to raise them. There are signs that strategy may be having some success.

Slow Food U.S.A., a movement encouraging people to reject mass-produced, packaged and highly processed foods and return to cooking from scratch, took up for the traditional turkeys this year.

The group contracted with Reese to raise 1,000 Narragansetts, American bronzes and red bourbons for its marketing arm this year.

"A thousand people all over the country have already ordered them for Thanksgiving," Reese said.

Compared with mass-produced supermarket turkeys going for less than $1 a pound, the Slow Food turkeys are expensive. Reese said they are being sold at $3.50 a pound before shipping.

"People think nothing of spending $90 for really spectacular turkeys," he said. "We could have sold 2,000 of them this year if we had them."

Copyright (c) 2002, Chicago Tribune.



To: Jim Mullens who wrote (125706)11/28/2002 12:13:12 AM
From: Jon Koplik  Respond to of 152472
 
My November 2000 turkey posts :

Message 14870149

Message 14870852

Message 14870886

Message 14871440

Jon.



To: Jim Mullens who wrote (125706)11/28/2002 12:14:14 AM
From: Jon Koplik  Respond to of 152472
 
My November 2001 turkey posts :

Message 16692480

Message 16692493

Message 16692525

Message 16692564

Message 16692578

Happy Thanksgiving to all !

Jon & Sharon.