Hi energyplay, <<expect ... for 2003 ... usual re-evaluations>>
This latest rally seems to be a combination of bear market flickering-of-hope rally, fueled by genuine liquidity fume, end-of-year window-dressing, enhanced by unwinding of arbitrage trades (long convertible bonds short underlying stocks), and leveraged on short squeeze.
I guess US equities will be up until February-March 2003, Japan will be up until March-April 2003, and then currencies will grind against currencies and gold, stocks grind against bonds and currencies, until the LTBHolders of currencies, stocks, bonds all manage to lose a wallop.
I figure the global economy, led by the US economy to follow-through with what the equity markets had been predicting, netting out the Maestro’s discount rate palliative, namely, severe economic recession or light depression, with concomitant increase in structural and cyclical unemployment.
I expect real estate to, finally and properly, blowup, triggered by debt-ly appetite exhaustion and thirsty credit crunch.
I envisage slow spiraling down of dollar again and against other currencies, in the net net and net.
I calculate that the officialdom in every territory and at every level will be pressed for finances, and will be trying to grab by confiscation, in one nasty way or by another fraudulent scheme.
I am hoping for a re-weighing of portfolio money allocation towards China, and if so, I am afraid of the usual eventual outcome, namely a heated unthinking bubble epilogue-d by a financial crisis. Say over the course of 18-24 months. In the mean happy time, party up.
<<hold Hopewell a little longer ?>> In the environment as describe above, using an Unreal Tournament Last Man Standing Game analogy unrealtournament.com , I must either keep moving, play dead, or die, financially speaking.
I will maintain high non-USD cash balance, while moving amongst the distressed or dividend yielding stocks, variety of bonds, but generally and methodically trading and accumulating more paper gold, until reaching (combined physical and paper gold) 10% of NAV.
I do not think of gold as inflation hedge, though it is that.
I do not think of gold as commodity, and it is that too.
I do not think of gold as near cash, currency of the invisible empire, which it certain is.
I just know the Argentinians, Brazilians, Koreans, Thai, Indonesians, Russians, Chinese, and Japanese ... all did well had they had gold, even in a deflationary crisis followed by an inflationary kick-in-the-behind, when their paper fiat dictate currency turned to dust and then vapor.
The USD holders have a lesson of historic proportions up ahead, and it will be born of the New New Economy, as managed by Sir Prints-Alot.
We must trust the Force, sense the perturbations, panic and/but panic first, before everybody else.
I am at approximately 44% cash (Euro, AUD, CHF, CAD, HKD for trading gold, Yen and USD), 20% bonds, 8% stocks, 8% metal, 20% real estate. 3.5% Yen loan.
I am looking forward to start shorting the US market in February if markets judged to be at relatively insane levels, and sell out of Japan by March.
After March, we can re-loop the tape back to 2002, for 2003, the Ground Hog Day movie of sequential declining stock chart, covered with crimson mists, framed by collage of vortex-ing paper currencies colliding against each other, destroying each other, and accompanied by dying screams of retirement nightmares and birthing cries of ever newer abracadabras.
And, oh, another thing, during all the above expected excitements, we may have one or several hot wars on our hands or in our lap.
2003 will be another terribly interesting year;0)
I am in fact quite enthusiastic on 2003, as shown here in the video date November 22nd ... Message 18263271
Chugs, Jay |
