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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: stockman_scott who wrote (9821)11/27/2002 11:01:30 AM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 89467
 
finished first draft of my article
"A Statistician's Indictment of Economists"
finally a good solid draft with latest work on sections
Friends of the Court
Conclusion

the Conclusion is a brief review of inflation
here is a large portion...
(should be available published in 10-14 days)

CONCLUSION:
Economists have failed. I mince no words. No topic or concept rings more loudly as “inflation” for its twisted policy and even more twisted understanding, owing in part to the propaganda for public acceptance of a twisted definition. I sometimes think that economists believe that laws of gravity could be repealed if only they could blow enough of their arrogant hot air under objects containing mass.

“Inflation” is defined as an expansion of the monetary base, i.e. the supply of money from either the authorized printing of dollars or the bank extension of credit, PERIOD. Economists cannot define it. They cannot measure it. They don’t know how to fight it. They are unaware of the price our economy pays in overcoming it, in the manner they perceive it. How are rock-bottom interest rates and evermore Fed liquidity (aka monetary inflation) supposed to cure an economy suffering from over-expansion, excess capacity, over-production, and extreme indebtedness arising from excessive extension of credit??? Try giving Jack Daniels to a drunk in detox!

Ned Schmidt cites a better price inflation measure in the Median CPI, developed by the Cleveland Fed. The Median CPI tends to behave more stably, with fewer false moves, and more reliable measurements. Steve Saville offers the ECRI’s Future Inflation Gauge, which portends short-term interest rates. It acts like a leading indicator for the Fed Funds Rate. No, the Naive CPI represents a governmental attempt to minimize COLA (cost of living adjustments) to federal pensions, and to suppress reported price inflation. It ignores costs of insurance, property tax, college tuition, town/city usage fees, and much more.

Economists prefer to define inflation in terms of what “real inflation” causes, i.e. price increases. Like calling a broken jaw “a punch”, or calling a broken back “a fall”, or calling a car crash “a wreckless driving.” If you inflate, you plant the seeds of eventual price rises. We have suffered such pervasive chronic abuse of the monetary inflation mechanism, that the risk might materialize for witnessing both a deep recession and price inflation. The recession could come from widespread liquidation and consequent lost jobs. The price inflation could come from futile continued monetary expansion. Current imbalances have never been this great in modern recorded history.

I will close this long indictment with a contrast of the absurd against the wise, Milton Friedman from the Keynesian School versus Ludwig von Mises from the Austrian School. Frank Shostak of Man Financial is a harsh critic of the clowns who are mismanaging our economy. He is deep, and speaks with very stern tone. He contrasts these two men’s opinions. Friedman actually believes that if price inflation is anticipated, then it can be averted by an offsetting infusion of monetary injections. As if matter can be neutralized by anti-matter? Unexpected price inflation, he believes, leads to a misallocation of resources and thus weakens the economy. He regards money supply as a tool that can stabilize price rises, and thereby promote real economic growth. Wow! So wealth can be printed?

Shostak quotes Murray Rothbard from his famous book America’s Great Depression when he wrote, “The fact that general prices were more or less stable during the 1920’s told most economists that there was no inflationary threat, and therefore the events of the Great Depression caught them completely unaware.” The inflation issue should be viewed in simpler terms. When more money circulates to chase a given level of goods and services, prices will rise. When credit is extended to create inflated asset prices, then prices will fall as debt is defaulted and products are liquidated. So abuse of monetary growth can cause BOTH inflation and deflation!!!

von Mises explains the futility of the Federal Reserve’s mandate in his essay “Inflation: An Unworkable Fiscal Policy.”

Inflation, as this term was always used everywhere and especially in this country, means increasing the quantity of money and bank notes in circulation and the quantity of bank deposits subject to check. But people today use the term ‘inflation’ to refer to the phenomenon that is an inevitable consequence of inflation, that is the tendency of all prices and wage rates to rise. The result of this deplorable confusion is that there is no term left to signify the cause of this rise in prices and wages. There is no longer any word available to signify the phenomenon that has been, up to now, called inflation. . . . As you cannot talk about something that has no name, you cannot fight it. Those who pretend to fight inflation are in fact only fighting what is the inevitable consequence of inflation, rising prices. Their ventures are doomed to failure because they do not attack the root of the evil. They try to keep prices low while firmly committed to a policy of increasing the quantity of money that must necessarily make them soar. As long as this terminological confusion is not entirely wiped out, there cannot be any question of stopping inflation.
- Ludwig von Mises

“Defining Inflation” by Frank Shostak (March 2002)
www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/shostak031202.html

“Housing Bust: Median CPI versus Naïve CPI” by Ned Schmidt (Aug 2002)
www.321gold.com/editorials/schmidt/schmidt080202.html

“The Inflation Problem: Future Inflation Gauge” by Steve Saville (Sept 2002)
www.321gold.com/editorials/saville/saville092002.html

/ jim