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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (7215)	11/27/2002 8:54:25 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 95531

Capital expenditure to rise 15% in 2003, says IC Insights By Peter Clarke Semiconductor Business News (11/27/02 07:36 a.m. EST) SCOTTSDALE, Arizona --- Semiconductor market research company IC Insights is predicting that 2003 will be a year of 15% capital expenditure growth year with semiconductor industry spending exceeding $32.4 billion. Current budgets across the chip industry would result in capital expenditure on chipmaking in 2003 increasing to about $29.7 billion, up 5% over 2002, according to the latest 'update' report from IC Insights Inc. However, these chip company budgets are likely to be 10% less than the final spending for 2003, the company reckons. “IC Insights forecasts that 2003 semiconductor capital spending budgets will show a 5% increase, but actual 2003 spending will be 15% higher than in 2002,” the update said. Such spending would come as a relief for the semiconductor equipment industry -- coming after 2002 spending of about $28.2 billion or 37% down on 2001 spending. However, even a 15% increase in capital expenditure is unlikely to be enough to stave off shortages in leading-edge production carrying over into 2004, the researcher said. IC Insights pointed out in the report that capital equipment spending plans, despite the large amounts of money involved, can be very volatile. “IC Insights believes that companies such as Intel, TI, Toshiba, NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi, ST, Samsung, TSMC, and UMC may significantly increase their spending plans sometime in 2003 from the budget levels currently listed,” it says in the current report. IC Insights lists the spending and estimates forward budgets for 45 of the leading semiconductor manufacturers in the November update.

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (7215)	11/27/2002 9:14:15 AM
From: zonder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95531

Re >>I would be genuinely interested to read your take on why tech stocks were so uniformly down all day yesterday Dunno. Profit taking, perhaps? I wasn't involved in any tech badmouthing, that's all I can say. >>And the reference that I posted re a fake story about an internal Novellus memo projecting reduced rev next year I did not see that one until I read your post this morning. It seems to be a rumour. *>>If you think you are a good judge of valuation and stock price, why couldn't you foresee Novellus price rise from 20 to 36 ?* Yes, I think I am a good judge of valuation and stock price. So do my employers apparently, for they pay me for it. Am I always right and can I always foresee price increases and declines for every stock group? No. Do I have to be? Again, no. I just have to be right more often than wrong. No, I did not catch the price increase in NVLS from $20 to $36 but I was not caught in it down from $55 to $20, either. Now that it is back up at $36, while there seems little positive news and the stock is at 3-digit P/E territory, I notice a shorting opportunity, that's all. >>And if you couldn't foresee that increase, why do you think you can foresee a decline from 36? It does't work that way, Sarmad. We do not have crystal balls, nor do we have prescient dreams. We do not have to catch every single upward move, and our missing a couple of such is no indicator that we are unfit to manage funds. To each his own, but if I am positive on an industry, and especially its leaders, I look at declines in price as buying opportunities. Quite the reverse for sectors I am negative on. Seen in this light, I hope you understand how I was not on the wagon from $20 to $36 for NVLS but might very well be down from $36. >>Have a great day, and I sincerely apologize if I have been rude to you. You, too, and no problem.