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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: zonder who wrote (7246)	11/27/2002 12:16:05 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95501

I think you are mixing cause and effect. People short because they believe a company will not do well. That is a little different than shorting the company and then hoping or working for the it to do badly. I think I can prove you wrong with a little exercise. Lets say you work for NVLS as the CEO. You learn your CFO thinks the stock price is too high as you just posted the other day. Next you learn your CFO went short your company stock for 2x his annual salary (assuming the law would allow this). Would you fire your CFO? IF I was a shareholder then I'd want the guy gone yesterday...

To: zonder who wrote (7246)	11/28/2002 8:58:38 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95501

Hi Zonder, Often times we expect the industry leaders to know what's next.This bewilders most - but the reality is they themselves don't know when the order comes in. Look at the crosscurrents fron Taiwan Semi vs United.It is just hard to say. What I believe is key and thusly why valuations seem sometimes to jump ahead and discount the future is managements ability to make the hard decisions and right size the company for any and all conditions. No one like to make the ugly call. Only the great leaders do and they provide confidence to a shakey investor class that this company given any circumstance WILL be profitable. As a worst case adjustment the truly "committed to profitability" have all made cuts in September/October time period. Accordingly valuations have responded favorably in light of worst case predictions. Cohu,SBSE,NVLS and many more have benefitted from this bewildering set of circumstances. All of a sudden we're discounting the future - it is because we've gained confidence in management's leadership. No doubt the first step in a soon to be announced turnaround.gg Bob