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Strategies & Market Trends : ahhaha's ahs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ahhaha who wrote (5673)	11/27/2002 9:58:59 PM
From: ahhaha	Respond to of 24758

Today was a put up day. The public runs price into booked shorts or synthetic inventory. It isn't a time to go short, but it is a good opportunity to position short or to be forced to go short. My expectation is that stocks will sell-off and then start up again although the initial leaders will lag. This is bull phase standard rotation. If the market, the NAZ, sells off, I don't know how far it will go. It is Ahhaha's Uncertainty Principle which says, "you can get when to move or you can get the degree of a move, but you can't expect to get them both and you need them both to be successful at trading. Thus, if the market soon starts down, I don't know to what degree down it will go. The way I handle this and what I did today was sell long, but I didn't sell stocks where I have strong earnings conviction and which aren't extended fundamentally. It was extremely easy to sell. I'd send in a market order to sell and get an execution at no concession to the instantaneous bid. In contrast, in early October the bid would drop like a rock on market order to sell. There's an ocean of orders underneath. As long as selling is mild, selling will fail to dent that order mass. People observe this through price consolidation and then jump on the market the next day. This happened today. The specialist had to sell at a premium given the superficial public demand. But if price starts a down side discovery, bids will be pulled, and then the next increment of discovery is inelastic. That's when the solid ground opens up, and down you go, as though you were Jonathan Edward's spider.

To: ahhaha who wrote (5673)	12/3/2002 4:28:07 PM
From: ahhaha	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 24758

Issing says that but Duisenberg says this: Associated Press Duisenberg hints at interest rate cut to boost EU economy Tuesday December 3, 7:32 am ET By Paul Ames, Associated Press Writer BRUSSELS, Belgium (AP) -- European Central Bank President Wim Duisenberg said Tuesday inflation risks have declined in the dozen countries that share the euro as their currency, indicating the bank could be headed toward a rare rate cut this week. ADVERTISEMENT "Since our last ECB meeting, the evidence has strengthened that inflationary pressures are easing somewhat," Duisenberg told the European Parliament's economic and monetary affairs committee. He stressed "downside risks to economic growth have not vanished," suggesting Thursday's meeting of the ECB's governing council could heed calls for a rate cut to boost Europe's flagging economy. Underlining the continuing slowdown, the European Union released unemployment figures showing the euro-zone jobless rate creeping up to 8.4 percent in October from 8.3 percent in September. Euro-zone finance ministers who met with Duisenberg Monday night were optimistic the Frankfurt-based bank would lower rates for the first time since November 2001. "I'm sure the ECB has a lot stored up for Thursday," said Austrian Finance Minister Karl-Heinz Grasser. "We need a very important signal." Duisenberg's comments are the latest in a series by ECB officials that have prepared markets to expect a cut. Speculation is focusing on whether the bank will lower key rates by a quarter or half a percentage point. Rate cuts spur growth, but can also increase upward pressure on prices. Duisenberg has resisted cutting rates while inflation across the 12-nation eurozone exceeds the ECB's 2 percent target. Latest estimates from the EU's statistics agency showed year-on-year inflation at 2.2 percent, better than many forecasts and close enough to the target for many to predict a cut. Duisenberg said he expected inflation to stay just above 2 percent in the early months of next year, but did not see a big risk of inflation accelerating. However, he said global uncertainty would continue to threaten growth despite signs pointing to a tentative recovery next year. The EU unemployment figures reflected the persistent slowdown in the economy, with 11.6 million people now out of work in the eurozone. "I think unemployment will continue to rise for the next three months," said Liesbeth Van de Craen, European economist at Brussels' BBL bank. "Businesses say they are still intending to lay off more people than hire new staff." To help the economy recover, Duisenberg told euro-zone governments they must stick to the fiscal discipline rules that ban deficits over 3 percent of gross domestic product and set a 2006 deadline for balanced budgets. He had tough words for Germany, France, Portugal and others who have let deficits widen. "It is now high time for the countries with deficits approaching or even exceeding 3 percent of GDP to honor their commitment to respect the rules," he told the parliament.