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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: byhiselo who wrote (17448)	11/27/2002 3:05:21 PM
From: NOW	Respond to of 30712

yep, good post. the bear is dead: long live the bear. the feed is throwing fuel on the fire, but those treasuries back up much more and home buyers will not be happy campers...

To: byhiselo who wrote (17448)	11/27/2002 10:02:43 PM
From: LTK007	Respond to of 30712

<<you can cut the angst on the boards with your finger... even i'm thinking that perhaps i'm wrong and we have seen the lows of this bear market,>> byhi, i have what i call my Pilot/Co-Pilot in my head:). Whenever i re-evaluate my bear market conviction , i & i (Reggae fans will like that:) sit down and go down a checklist just like an Airplane Pilot/Co-Pilot do before a takeoff, we check each reasoning we have for our conviction on a the bear market being alive and well. My checklist is coming up with the same answers. One, for LTBH, they remain within as dangerous a market that has existed in the last 100 years. Two, the more we rally now the WORST it will be in 2003. Three, if i myself were trapped in this market i would sell all equities on the first strong sell signal that occurs during this rally, and be ready to re-enter at new lows. and 4) Anything less than a token short position at this time i see as real risk as the uptrend has a potential for a Blow-Off top. (Blow-Off tops are in part from a massive short squeeze taking place). 5) i am now looking to MarQQQ puts,for a partial position, as i feel they are far enough out in time, and this will not run to April, as a significant SOME do believe. So that's where I STAND as the winds " a new bull market" howl about me.:) PaxMax

To: byhiselo who wrote (17448)	11/27/2002 11:12:07 PM
From: LTK007	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

Byhi, i think this is good time to review my decisions of 1999 and give cause why i am not changing as i did then. In review, i was trading buy-side very very heavily, from October 1998 to October 1999, at which point i went vocally bearish and took a big hit short side as we approached December. I was confronted head on, do i go to retrieve the loss by stubbornly staying short and go buy-side. As we entered December i went to heavy buy-side only. And between that time and when i dumped all on 4/7/2000 i retrieved my loss and went well beyond into a heavy profit ---. During that time i was being extremely sarcastic about the Bull BS, but riding it anyway. So why do i NOT go long now???? In brief, very brief. Come December i realized Y2k not only was going to be a complete fizzle(and that alone would set off buying) but also Greenspan had flooded the market with liquidity and that , because of Y2k the 4th Quarter earnings, the tech earnings would be one time ONLY blow-out great(and would set a benchmark that will NEVER be approached again) . With all this factored i realized we were in a perfect set-up for a market historic level wild frenzy. I do NOT see any parallels now to the fall/winter of 1999 and now.But if, on the long shot chance this builds into a early 2000 like mania pushing well into March, it will set up , and i MEAN this, a sell-off so catastrophic the losses incurred by the those sucked in and caught in it would crush our economy for at least a decade. i say to those that think it is "patriotic" to talk talk the market up and to consume consume(and worry not about debt building) is also "patriotic", those ilk i believe are propagandizing a formula for a deep and long disaster. There is much more--but that is the nutshell:) Max