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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (17509)	11/27/2002 7:45:18 PM
From: augieboo	Respond to of 30712

Splat! Splat-splat-splat!

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (17509)	11/27/2002 8:45:08 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

Eugene, I think the comparisons to 82 are specious at this point... You want to go long equities went interest rates at 20% ('82) because they (rates) have no place to go but down....where can interest rates go now? Hmm... U.S. stocks were underrepresented in portfolios in '82 (out of favor)...can we truly say stocks are out of favor now?....sure we are down from bubble levels, but by all accounts (stock recommendations on Wall Street, % owned by individuals) levels remain extraodinarily, historically very, very high.. In '82, we had just been thru 16 years of flat Dow performance....we haven't accomplished a time retrace anywhere close to 16 years...even just looking at the bull since '82, we have more time to correct.. There is more (but that's enough for now)-, IMO, one has to be very careful with neat package arguments- when conditions simply aren't (near) the same..

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (17509)	11/27/2002 9:33:10 PM
From: Win-Lose-Draw	Respond to of 30712

from the FWIW department... i'm spending turkey day in virginia horse country. what i'm being told at hunt club parties is that everybody is broke, properties over $400k are moving with the alacrity of pond water, and nobody has money because all the bluebloods - and blueblood wannabees - got raped in the market and excess cash has all but disappeared. there appear to be quite a few folks "suddenly" stuck with properties they can't sell for enough to cover the refi'ed mortgages of the past couple years. also spoke with a surgeon who is finding it impossible to retire because she has to pay $50k/year in malpractice for an extra 8 years to cover any future claims. and no, the $50k rate is not locked in. her income has also been significantly impacted by HMOs and she no longer has any plans whatsoever to retire before a considerably riper age than she imagined 5 years ago. hope everyone has a abfab holiday!

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (17509)	11/27/2002 10:55:02 PM
From: ajtj99	Respond to of 30712

Eugene, have you looked into when the investment tax credit expires this year? Have you thought about that for a sudden surge in durable goods orders? I may be mistaken, but I think it might expire this calendar year. If so, it would lend a sudden urgency to durable goods orders for plants, equipment, and machinery that might otherwise have been placed and / or delivered next calendar year. We were thinking about some new trucks, but we said screw the tax credit and we're waiting another year (they depreciate about 30% the first year anyway), partially also due to some engine spec stuff.

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (17509)	11/28/2002 2:34:15 AM
From: LTK007	Respond to of 30712

Eugene, we will decide this issue sometime in 2003. Point is, one of us is wrong and one of us is right. There is NO GREY area between you and me Gene. So one of us is going to be very wrong or very right. We will see, will we not? My own view of 65.2 communications equipment spike and move up in machine orders? Ephemeral and not a trend. Reasons, i have several running thru my head. Iraq is not a reason for me to be right and you wrong, so if war breaks out i will NOT accept that as a reason for my being right. My reasoning does NOT depend on a bet there will be war. If market plunges IF a war commences, it will only be an excuse to sell a market that is already dangerously overvalued. I view the market to be in high gear GREED status, and any straw to buttress that view is grabbed and waved about mightily in an attempt to prove a boom growth is ahead where i rather see at best a slug crawling up a rock growth(ONLY a Boom concept can justify the rate the market i now rising).Max