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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (62486)	12/2/2002 9:20:25 PM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 77400

Cisco downgraded ahead of meeting By Ben Charny Staff Writer, CNET News.com December 2, 2002, 3:02 PM PT An analyst downgraded his rating for Cisco Systems stock on Monday, a day before the company's annual analyst day. Companies selling less-expensive routers and switches, and delays in global economic recovery beyond 2003, will take their toll on the networking giant, John Wilson, an RBC Capital Markets analyst, wrote in a note to clients. Cisco on Tuesday will be conducting a full day of presentations to the financial community about its expectations and strategies for the coming year. Wilson believes the company won't alter its projection of a third-quarter revenue that's either the same as last quarter's or down between 3 percent and 4 percent. "Although 'analyst day' theoretically presents an opportunity to upgrade its guidance, we believe management will keep second-quarter guidance unchanged," Wilson wrote. In the same note, he downgraded the stock from "outperform" to "sector perform." A Cisco representative had no immediate comment. The slow global economic recovery, one of the reasons Wilson cites for Cisco's less-than-stellar expected performance, has affected every company. But technology providers, including Cisco, are being hit hard with a slowdown in spending by companies on networking equipment. To fight its way out of the slump, Cisco has focused more of its energy on entering new markets such as storage networks, which allow every computer in a company to be backed up with a networked set of storage drives. Research firm Gartner Dataquest estimates that the market for so-called storage area networks (SANs) increased 13 percent last year to $1.46 billion. Cisco is a relative newcomer to that market. The company in August announced plans to purchase privately held Andiamo Systems in a deal worth as much as $2.5 billion. Cisco is expected to debut a new line of products based on Andiamo's equipment by year's end. Brocade Communications Systems remains the market leader in SANs, accounting for 34 percent of sales, followed by McData and Emulex, according to Gartner.

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (62486)	12/11/2002 4:07:56 PM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

To me this valuation seems optimistic. 7 billion shares outstanding, wowsers! CSCO 2002 (base) 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Revenues 18,915 20,807 22,887 25,176 27,693 30,463 33,509 Operating Margin 14.33% 15.00% 15.00% 16.00% 16.00% 16.50% 16.50% EBIT 2,710 3,121 3,433 4,028 4,431 5,026 5,529 EBIT(1-t) 1,762 2,029 2,231 2,618 2,880 3,548 4,074 CAPEX 2,641 2,747 3,159 3,632 4,177 4,804 5,524 Depreciation 1,957 2,035 2,341 2,692 3,095 3,560 4,094 Change in WC 26 312 343 403 443 503 553 Free Cash Flow to Firm 1,052 1,005 1,070 1,275 1,355 1,801 2,091 PV of Free Cash Flow 874 809 838 775 896 19,007 Revenue Growth 10.00% Terminal Growth Rate 4.00% Cost of Capital 15.00% Tax Rate 35% Cash 12,600.00 Cumulative FCF 35,798.62 Fair Value Share Price 4.95 Current Price 13.68 Shares 7,230