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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: zonder who wrote (7283)	11/28/2002 10:52:26 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95490

I just don't see where growth is going to come from. Growth so high, moreover, to justify a 140-something P/E. IF P/E were that high on earnings of $1 or so, then you might have a case but if the P/E is high due to low revenue and low but positive earnings (like a few cents), then I'd look at what would happen to the P/E if the company booked an incremental 10% in revenue. If that only led to a 10% decline in PE, then I'd say it was over valued. But if that 10% incremental revenue tripled earnings.... then you start to look at what would happen with higher increments of earnings. Here are two good articles on P/E: suite101.com "The PE Myth" and "Flaws in the forecasts; Researchers say p/e, dividend yield make poor prognosticators " To everyone Happy Thanksgiving! Kirk

To: zonder who wrote (7283)	11/28/2002 12:01:33 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95490

No, over the years - the cycle turn comes before any growth is foreseeable. It is an anticipatory almost intuitive kind of thing. We're all trying to catch the bottom.That's where the big money is made - it is afterall where there is relatively more risk. That's of course an oxymoron - the least risk is when prices are closest to book values. P.E.'s in the troughs of cycles are meaningless.This sector is famous for its cyclicality.That perhaps is what I like about it the most. Famed for violent cycles -they also are of a high frequency - that is if you can be patient for 2-3 years you can be right again.Perhaps because of the excessive blowoff distribution in 2000 - this cycle will be longer and somewhat anemic relative to past cycles. One thing that has been constant since I've been tracking the SCE sector (since 85) - the turn is not foreseen - the news certainly doesn't give one an edge. My best rule of value and safety is try to determine a book value and/or cash value.Only invest in companies with niche leadership and bullet proof balance sheets - they will be around to thrive again. Its not hard to do,but one must be persistent and above all PATIENT. This is a good group mostly positive/optimistic (of which I 've been labeled the worst).They study and report all news - good and bad.This seems to allow time to pass and thusly the patient part is more palletable. See how easy it is.gg Bob