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To: At_The_Ask who wrote (207178)	11/28/2002 11:12:47 AM
From: pogbull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

I read through the interview twice last night and agree with you that this guy is one of the few who really understand where we are headed. And it is scary. Post I put on THE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE CRASH INDEX earlier this morning: [[If real assets like gold retain value in the impending financial chaos described by Parks... what about real estate?]] I've spent some time thinking about this as well, especially in light of Fed Gov Bernanke's comments comments on Nov 21 regarding monetization if we get into a deflationary situation. The negatives I see for real estate: 1. Backed by debt 2. Increasing taxes (as you mentioned) 3. Rising interest rates 4. Probable continuation of job loss trend I'm just not sure of the S/I/L term effects of monetization or if the Fed will openly admit when they begin monetizing. My guess is that the short term effect (as confirmed by Elroy) would be a dramatic increase in the value of homes. With a longer term collapse in housing prices. Intermediate term, I just don't know and am not nearly smart enough to figure it out. My problem with all of this future monetiztion and current market manipulation is that it just isn't sound fiscal policy for the long run. A household or a small business could never run in continuous deficit and remain intact, so how in the world can we expect/allow our government ot do this to the country. I think we are entering unchartered waters and I don't trust the captains of our fleet. One thing I picked up from the Parks interview was that the IMF head gave a 20 percent chance of a global financial collapse. Thoughts from others very much appreciated. Happy Thanksgiving