Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: zonder who wrote (7289)	11/28/2002 11:13:08 AM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 95500

I don't own NVLS as I find better stocks to suit my goals. My point was to warn that PE is not the best of indicators... mix it with growth and average earnings trend over many cycles and I think you have something. Still, it is a comparison. These stock are more like options on the semi stocks... so you get far more swing from them. IF Intel can raise FLASH prices... these stocks will go up. More revenue for the semis means more equipment buys and higher earnings. Nobody knows ahead of time what will happen as the only leading indicator seems to be price and that is sometimes short lived if the upswing is short such as we had this year. Kirk

To: zonder who wrote (7289)	11/28/2002 11:58:57 AM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95500

Now tell me what is so special about NVLS. 1) The stock price trend is strongly up. The stock and the sector it is in are both in a very strong up trend since the Oct 9th lows. 2) The company is strongly suggesting that the fundamentals may be at the bottom of the previous cycle - or, if you prefer, the company is at the start of a new up cycle. If this is the case (and the stock price suggests it is), then the market may(has) start(ed) looking at future peak earnings potential vs. the currently poor fundies. 3) The company has a strong customer base and a solid balance sheet. It continues to be profitable during the worst SCE slump ever seen. and, while not specific to NVLS: 4) Seasonally, Nov+Dec is one of the strongest times of the year for the US equities market (according to many studies). This hold true especially when the market was weak leading into this period. - But hey, this is what makes a market. One person sells, thinking the stock is overvalued, and another buys, thinking that the price is cheap and will rise in the future. Your confidence that you have made the proper call to short NVLS is admirable. Now it's time for us to let the market decide whether or not this was a good time to short. Would you care to share what your TA department says about the stock? Where would they cover? tia, Michael

To: zonder who wrote (7289)	11/28/2002 12:05:50 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 95500

zonder, How many semi cycles have you been through? When(Not If), the semi cycle turns, NVLS, AMAT and the like are in a position to see their EPS grow substantially. Kirk is right on about the equipment stocks being almost options for semis and PE's virtually meaningless at this point in time. When the turn comes, and it will, it will most likely be longer and more violent than you would ever think. Has happened every time since I have been in the space and I see no reason why this time will be different. Brian

To: zonder who wrote (7289)	11/28/2002 12:50:01 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95500

RE: "Now tell me what is so special about NVLS." It has had and will very likely only ever have one significant competitor. It has done very well for a long time in these circumstances. So the competitive advantages and boundaries to entry are as sustainable and significant, respectively, as they get in technology land. It is a key player in the key industry of our time, semis. It is a prime facilitator of the major engine driving worldwide prosperity, Moore's Law. This engine has been growing geometrically for close to 40 years and it is doubling power/cost every 18 months. It is changing our lives and AMAT, ASML, KLAC, and NVLS are the indisputable winners and the world's most valuable companies. They are highly valued in the marketplace because enough people understand that there are very few high quality tech companies, supply and demand. In a previous post, you offered CORV as a counterpoint to NVLS. In my opinion, you were not even close. If I am correct, you are not ready to consider PE in absolute and relative terms because you don't know what you have in NVLS. HAPPY THANKSGIVING!!!