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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (17576)	11/28/2002 11:14:39 PM
From: ajtj99	Respond to of 30712

Justa, the monthly SOX makes it appear like the SOX wants 409 or 420. 425 is a 50% re-trace off the 641 highs to the 209 lows. We might get to 409 and reverse, but I think it may be a decent bet, especially as we've surpassed the .382 re-trace level at 374 SOX: stockcharts.com[h,a]maclyyay[d19940102,20021128][pb20!b50!b200!c13!c20!c50!i!d20,2!f][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9!lg!li10,10!lh5,5!lp14,3,3!ll14][J6529246,Y]&pref=G SOX weekly: stockcharts.com[h,a]waclyyay[dd][pb20!b50!b200!c13!c20!c50!i!d20,2!f][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9!lg!li10,10!lh5,5!lp14,3,3!ll14][j7078533,y]&listNum=1

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (17576)	11/29/2002 12:48:20 AM
From: nsumir81	Respond to of 30712

ed-Justa..I think SOX and Taiwan still correlate..only with a lag..that can be called divergence (or looks like divergence..for a short time until one index follows the other that leads in the change). Also comparing NDX, COMP and SOX, I noticed that the SOX was the last to fall in 2002. This was even true in the last days of the bubble in early 2000. This is more apparent when you look at the RATE of percent rise (momentum). I plotted the SOX NDX COMP comparison on Bigcharts (where you can select a specific timeframe within which to compare indices and even do a % comparison). Then, the 3 indices were in lock-step with each other on a percent rise basis (taking the end of 10/99 as the start point) until middle of Jan 2000. In just that period from middle of Jan 2000 to the first top in early March 2000, the SOX continued to surge ahead RELATIVE to the NDX and COMP, with the NDX performing just marginally better than the COMP but for all effective purposes, the same. For more specificity within the 10/1/99-4/1/00 period.. ie from 10/31/99 the NDX and COMP roughly were up 45 % at the first top in the middle of Jan 2000 and the SOX was up around 50 %. Thereafter around the first top in early March 2000, the SOX was up 140 % but the NDX and COMP were only up around 73 and 70 % respectively (approximately). So we maybe seeing a similar divergence now between the NDX, COMP and the SOX. As was also in the Fall 2001 rally top. (SOX did not make its high until March 2002 with the NDX faltering first RELATIVELY speaking in early Dec 2001). The Summer rallies of 2000 have no pattern to them for these indices, and the Jan 2001 rally and the April 2001 rally had the 3 indices rallying equally (except for the SOX showing more strength in the June 2001 top..first bounce after the pullback off the May 2001 top).