From Briefing.com: 10:14AM Sector Watch: Semiconductor : The Nasdaq Composite has pulled back slightly with the pressure coming from the semi sector (SOX 378 -0.8%, slipped as much as 2.3% off its high). Weighing on the sector thus far are: LSCC -1.3%, KLAC -1.5%, TER -3.1%, NSM -2.3%, NVLS -1.7%, BRCM -1%.
9:56AM Nasdaq testing 200-day simple moving average : -- Technical -- Nasdaq is testing its 200-day simple moving average, which currently rests at 1,497. Look for the 1,497 to 1,500 range to serve as a pivot point today. If the index should break 1,500, watch for subsequent overhead at 1,520 which matches up with a 50% retracement of the index' March to October sell wave. To the downside, look for initial support at 1,494 followed by a subsequent floor at 1,487. Please click here for a more comprehensive assessment of the technical outlook.
9:35AM Infineon downgraded at Solly (IFX) 10.28 -0.02: Salomon Smith Barney in a pre-open note downgraded IFX to In-Line from Outperform due to the worsening DRAM environment.
10:06AM Friday Feast : Trading volume will be light during today's holiday shortened session, however, for those market participants not headed to the mall after yesterday's culinary extravaganza, Friday has historically proven to be a feast for the bulls.
We have touched on the generally positive bias that the market has maintained over the last 50 years during the Thanksgiving week. While taken together the performance has been solid but the star of the show based on the number of winners over the last 10 years has clearly been Friday. Despite the fact that the market has endured three tough years in a row, the day after Thanksgiving the Dow has been up 9 out of the last 10 years (all the results are for a short session) with the one exception not during the recent bear market but 1993.
The table below lists the point gain/loss for the Dow over the last 10 years on Friday and on the following Monday. Although the latter session does not meet Friday's extraordinary record in terms of the number of winners (Dow up 7 out of the last 10 years with one flat session) the average gain has actually outdone Friday.
Year Friday Monday
1992 +15.94 +22.96
1993 -3.63 -6.15
1994 +33.64 +31.29
1995 +7.23 +22.04
1996 +22.36 unch
1997 +28.35 +189.98
1998 +18.80 +216.53
1999 +19.26 -40.99
2000 +70.91 +75.84
2001 +125.03 +23.04
Average Gain +33.79 +47.19
-- Jim Schroeder, Briefing.com
9:38AM Technical Levels : Okay, so on Tuesday we addressed the issue of the Nasdaq's looming 200-day simple moving average and whether the index could sustain what had been a 10-day, 12.7% rally. Then Wednesday, we faced the question of whether the Nasdaq essentially worked off a near-term overbought condition with its one-day, 38-point sell off. Now going into today's half session, it looks as if we're more or less back to square one -- the Nasdaq put together an impressive move Wednesday, and is now once again coming up on that 200-day simple moving average.
So we already stated the Nasdaq looked good Wednesday -- but what does that really mean? Well, in terms of the straight numbers, the index added 44 points which amounted to a one-day, 3.0% advance. Now total volume traded came in slightly above average levels right around 1.7 billion total shares traded -- not all bad in light of the holiday. Yet the market internals were hitting bullish extremes -- advancing volume outpaced declining volume by almost 10 to 1. By the end of the day, the Nasdaq closed out Wednesday at 1,488 which matched up well with our final resistance at 1,487.
What all this suggests is that for the time being, the near-term bias should remain higher so long as any upcoming sell pressure is orderly and no significant technical damage is done.
And this leaves us with the matter of the straight technical levels. On a very near-term basis -- i.e. today -- look for the index to face an important test of its 200-day simple moving average, which currently rests at 1,497. Now conventional wisdom suggests this really is a big test and it would be somewhat surprising if the index managed a clean closing break of this level on a less liquid, holiday-shortened session. Yet at the same time, the retail trader will clearly have a disproportionate impact today so anything is possible -- just don't bank on it.
At any rate, look for 1,497 to 1,500 to serve as a pivot point today. If the index should break 1,500, watch for subsequent overhead at 1,520 which matches up with a 50% retracement of the index' March to October sell wave. Looking out much more broadly, we'll reiterate that resistance in the range of 1,613 and 1,620 will be an important level worth watching on a longer-term basis. It represents obvious straight-line resistance and also matches up with a 62% retracement of the Nasdaq's March to October sell wave.
So to the downside, we'll retain the 1,487 level as an initial point of interest followed by subsequent support in the range of 1,467 to 1,470. If those two levels should fail, look for another modest support point at 1461 followed by more significant support in the range of our former resistance at 1,448 to 1,452. -- Mike Ashbaugh, Briefing.com
finance.yahoo.com^SOXX+ALTR+AMAT+AMD+BRCM+IFX+INTC+KLAC+LLTC+LSCC+LSI+MOT+MU+MXIM+NSM+NVLS+TER+TXN+XLNX+^VIX+^VXN+^NDX+^IXIC+^SPX+SMH&d=t |
