Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (61151)	11/29/2002 12:43:43 PM
From: William H Huebl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Bob, I think we are all impatient to get on with the bull! But that may be just that... a bunch of bull. Many, many months ago (in spring of this year), someone asked me the same question... are we good to go? At that time I referred to the weekly Pring KST charts: pring.com ... and at the time, it looked like we were about to cross-over and go bullish... not long after that, things took another turn for the worse and I had to eat my words... as the above chart clearly shows. Now you are asking me, with the Pring KST chart in even WORSE condition than 6 or so months ago, whether we are good to go. I would suggest you ask me that question in 3 months or more... we are not even close to anything KST would suggest as a turn-around. And then there is: geocities.com If you will look at the CCI indicator on monthly SPY, you will see that it needs to be in the upper part of the range (positive) for anything significant to develop. And I would suggest we are at least months, possibly years away from that cross-over. And if you believe in tooth fairies and head and shoulder patterns, you can see the break-down in that pattern in the SPY shows the worst is yet to come!!!! Is anyone shouting that from the roof-tops? NOoooooo! Did anyone tell you to get out at the turn of the century? I mean besides me!!! (I was out and only got back in in the past months for this move up.) So if that H&S completes, you will be buying current stocks at pennies on the CURRENT dollars (not just the peak dollars). What will it take to do that? How about a run on the dollar! How about the realization that things are NOT getting any better. How about a Japan type failure where nothing improves for years and years and years! To boil down my thoughts, I think we can probably get back to DOW levels as high as 10,000 (not saying it will even get close... just that it is possible)... boy will THAT be a ride. But if and when that happens, look for the mother of all crashes... and it could come as early as April of next year! And here is the DJIA monthly H&S... note that these large cap stocks could get cut in half during the sell-off... but NOT pennies on the dollar unless a world-wide depression results! geocities.com