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Strategies & Market Trends : Three Amigos Stock Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ken W who wrote (29268)	12/1/2002 4:02:13 PM
From: arnold silver	Respond to of 29382

Ken, I picked this up from another board. Your thoughts?TWK 1)Stock is extremely oversold/Warren Buffett recently(Nov.5) invested $300 million in company/5 day chart is extremely bullish(look for yourself) 2)Book value of $8.75, Cash value of $8.71 and trading below both at an undervalued price of $1.58. Huge Gap to fill to $3 3)Panic selling by retailers on low volume brought the price this low. Go back and check the tape and you will see that I am accurate in my assessment. 4)Annual revenues of over 1 Billion dollars with a 20% growth rate.(last year's losses were heavily related to 09/11 losses which were HUGE)(next year is being projected to be a great year for premiums) 5)Debt to equity ratio of 0.28 which basically means very, very little debt. 6)Terrorism Insurance Bill passed today will significantly reduce risk exposure of TWK to future claims. This will allow TWK to increase their annual revenues by offering more insurance to prospective clients where as before this bill was enacted, TWK would not be in a position to take on these clients. 7)Very small float of 36 million shares which means that the stock moves quick on low volume. Big volume and she flies as evidenced by stock price movement over past 2 weeks. Institutions currently own 91.9% of float or the equivalent of 33,814,030 shares. This means that retailers ONLY have access to roughly 2.5 million shares. Institutions have NOT been selling at all lately which leads me to believe that the LOC will be agreed upon in principal. A matter of fact, institutional records show that institutions have actually added 300,000 shares in the last week. There was a decrease of 6,944,969(due to being removed from S&P SmallCap 600 Index)shares and an increase of 7,253,135 shares for a net increase of roughly 300,000 shares. 8)Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE:BRKa - News), agreed to provide struggling reinsurer Trenwick Group (NYSE:TWK - News) with up to $200 million in capital and reinsurance for its Lloyd's operations. Buffett would NOT provide 200 million dollars to a company that is going out of business. 9)It is my belief that the LOC was delayed until after the Terrorism Insurance Bill was passed which happened today. The passing of this Bill was HUGE for TWK as it minimizes future risk on insurance claims. Now that the Bill is a done deal, look for our LOC to be a done deal within the next 3 days. 10) I saved the best for last. The technicals for this stock as of the close of trading on 11/29 are unbelievably bullish. If you know anything about TA then you know that this is a screaming buy. Upside near short term(2 weeks) potential for this stock from these levels is a minimum 3 bagger. Long term targets, well, I think you know where this one is going. Good luck to all as I LOVE when the small guys make $$$$. (I hate how institutions try to steal money from the small time retailers)////////// Arnie