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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rock_nj who wrote (83526)	11/29/2002 12:48:27 PM
From: Marc Fortier	Respond to of 99985

Too much money on the sideline, very low yield due to historically low interest rates, better prospects ahead because of improving economy and fiscal incentives... Technically, a nice rebound from the lows so far... As for earnings, I'd say that they will come up a little better than anticipated, but targets will remain cautious for 2003... All in all, I am bullish for the first four months of 2003. After that, my crystal ball is too blurry... LOL

To: Rock_nj who wrote (83526)	11/30/2002 2:05:54 PM
From: Tom Pulley	Respond to of 99985

Which will win out in the month of December? Rock_nj, my guess is that December will be a weak. My timing model went to 25% short based on the closing readings Friday. Perhaps this rally needs to take a rest. A couple of things indicating this are shown below. First, the most recent Nasdaq high prior to this run-up occurred on August 22nd. On that day the percent of stocks over their 10 and 21 day moving averages peaked at 82% and 80%, respectively. At Wednesday's high close of 1488, the numbers were 80% and 79%. Message 18286377 Only 14 stocks made new lows on the Nasdaq Friday: stockcharts.com[e,a]daclyyay[d19980101,20021130][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G This low level of new lows indicate an overbought condition. The put/call ratio is dropping into the 0.6 range and equity put/call ended the day Friday at .47. Again, these ranges are low and suggest a correction in the up-trend should occur soon: cboe.com The monthly insider buy/sell ratio increased substantially in November: insider.thomsonfn.com So, quite a few indications we will see a correction in December that hopefully will position the market for gains next year. Certainly there is not much risk of missing a huge rally at this point. The odds point to the likelihood of opportunities to go long below current prices. Tom