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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jeffrey S. Lillie who wrote (17659)	11/29/2002 6:47:57 PM
From: exp	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 30712

JEFF L.: Comparison of bear market rallies: Rally COMP NDX Start %gain %gain ------------------ 4/01 44% 54% 9/01 51% 59% 10/02 35% 43% All based on intraday highs/lows. So, yes, an impressive rally. But still well short of the previous largest bear rallies. So why should it stop before it goes up another 10-15%? I can't think of any good reason. I also don't see why many people see this rally as any different than the past bear market rallies. I welcome comments at variance with my views.

To: Jeffrey S. Lillie who wrote (17659)	11/30/2002 12:59:23 AM
From: augieboo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 30712

Hi Jeff, I flipped half of my RYVNX to RYVYX (2x bull) a few days ago, so I am currently blissfully "neutral." And it's this newly found neutrality which has, I believe, allowed me to see that this rally has much more potential -- note I say POTENTIAL -- to the upside than I had previously admitted to myself. Yes, NDX is looking tired, but so what? PLEASE take a look at this chart comparing BPNDX with BPCOMQ over the last three years. home.earthlink.net Do you see that BPNDX has a habit of peaking LONG before BPCOMPQ does? NDX is only 100 stocks. The crappola has yet to run, and could do so for several weeks. Yes, the SPX has barely moved since this thing started. But so what? All that illustrates is something upon which I think we agree heartily, i.e., that there is no fundamental basis for this rally, that it is a mo-mo contrivance. I'm willing to bet that if the SPX and the NAZ both went sideways with the slightest of upward bias, from now through the end of the year, Greenie would be more than satisfied. The thing is, the NAZ doesn't "do" sideways very well for extended periods of time. So in order to keep it up they are going to have to keep it moving higher. Will they succeed? I don't know. But I think there is a significant possibility that they will. IMHO the NDX will VIOLATE its ascending triangle breakout of last thursday by no later than the end of next week. ... Same for nas at 1425. One question: WHY?