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Non-Tech : Farming -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: johnlw who wrote (146)	12/11/2002 7:58:21 AM
From: johnlw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4441

Its hard to imagine things getting worse than this but with no snow on the ground now, none in the forecast, it is difficult to be optimistic for the grain sector in Alberta. agsolutions.ca StatsCan Crop Report Statistics Canada released its final production estimates for 2002 production on Thursday, December 5, confirming that the growing season was one of the worst in a century. Problems centered primarily in Western Canada where drought, pests, frost, rain and snow all came at the worst possible time for the western two-thirds of the prairies. “For some farmers in Alberta and Saskatchewan it was worse than the 1930s,” said StatsCan. “It was [also] the third consecutive year of declining production. Output of the six major crops of western Canada was down 44% from 1999, 41% from 2000, and down 25% from 2001.” Total production of specialty crops including lentils, field peas, mustard seed, canary seed and sunflower seeds slammed down 39% from 1999, 49% from 2000 and 25% from 2001. The following table shows the highlights of the Statistics Canada report, comparing the current production estimates with the October forecasts and last year’s estimates. It should be noted that some of last year’s numbers were revised based on census data. Here is a breakdown of the estimates for Western Canada. Notice the increases for December over October for wheat and canola. This contrasts with decreases from October for barley and oats. Some implications: Statistics Canada’s revision for canola - up about 250,000 tonnes from the earlier forecast - was one more bearish factor for a market already falling heavily. On Friday, December 6, the January canola future closed more than $20 per tonne lower than the week earlier. Monday’s trade saw a continued break. The higher wheat production estimate contributed to weakness in U.S. wheat futures Thursday, Friday and Monday. Wheat futures are down heavily from the highs set earlier this year. Oat production was revised down by nearly 140,000 tonnes from the October forecast. This leaves the production level at about 2% above last year despite a 26% increase in the seeded area. Oat stocks coming in to the new-crop season were almost nil. Although the crop is up 2% much of it is poor quality. Good quality oats stocks will remain tight. Total Canadian barley production will be even smaller than anticipated in October and down almost one-third from last year. Another Agsolutions Weekly article (Barley Market Update) provides analysis of the barley market - and concludes that the short supply may not drive prices sharply higher.