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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pvz who wrote (17910)	12/1/2002 11:25:44 AM
From: que seria	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

pvz: I'd go with (a) or (e). I see no H&S setting up yet on the S&P monthly. There is higher volume on the right shoulder, if you want to call the line around 965 a shoulder. However, the chart is supporting a move toward negation or testing at 965, not a pattern follow-through. I don't place much confidence in H&S patterns, but I have to pay some attention to their dramatic follow-through potential. I'd care more about the pattern on the S&P if I saw the index climbing above ~965 and testing that S/R line from above. I see the S&P pattern as a domed top. I wouldn't call the H&S negated just because 965 is taken out going the "wrong" way (up), so long as price stays below some MAs and the 9/00 falling resistance line. I'm short SPY now, and may close that if it takes out the 965 local high. I won't be around for the test of the falling resistance line from 9/00 if that comes, as I'm now guessing it will: stockcharts.com[r,a]mbclyiay[pc10!c20!c40!b200!i!f][vc60][iub14!uk14!lc5!la12,26,9!lp14,3,3!lf!ll14][j8574274,y]&listNum=4 I definitely don't think "the bottom is in," although I note the number of believers increasing. My guess is an S&P below 750 by the end of next year, whether or not it pokes its head above 1000 this year.

To: pvz who wrote (17910)	12/1/2002 1:22:26 PM
From: kodiak_bull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

PV: As for your d), I don't think there is a "completion" of a H&S pattern, it's a topping and reversal pattern which signals the completion of the upward move--you make a shoulder, then top out on a head, then test and fail on the right shoulder and then all bets are off until the thing you're following can make a reversal pattern off a bottom, which of course can be a reverse H&S. The reversal that theh bulls are praying for is a W bottom, but I'm not convinced. Put me in the camp which doubts the value of these longer termed patterns, such as a 3-4 year head and shoulders pattern, in any event. Even if it is valid, because the time frame is so expanded, it's hard for me to imagine what to do with it. On a time frame such as yours, I find it more generally, big picture, useful to put in some big zigs (I used 8% here) and look at how the waves are stacking up on this chart: stockcharts.com[e,a]wbclnyay[d19921130,20021130][pb50!b200!e8][vc60]&pref=G I don't particularly buy into the Elliot Wave School where you are looking for 5 wave patterns and then reversals. I always try to be pretty cold blooded about these things and just look at what's there to see what's really there. Often there are 7- or 9-wave patterns, and often there are 5-wave patterns which rest and retrace before they continue. Looking at the zigzag chart above, I can see where the bulls want to have a W bottom here, but it's just as likely to be the retracing and setup for a big move down. Now anyone can see in the zigs what they want to, but I think the August high could easily be the start of a series of waves which end up pretty far down. In any event with GF's bullish % indicators so high, I don't see anything here but at least a relatively strong retracement coming. Whether it becomes a plunge or not is of course the $64 question. Kb

To: pvz who wrote (17910)	12/1/2002 3:17:48 PM
From: Warpfactor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

PVZ, I will chime in with a vote for "C" - market will eventually push through. Hedge funds dictate the market - they seem to operate in their own form of herd-think. They pushed the market to truly extreme technical readings in July and again in October. We market technicians got in too early and got roughed up good - at least I did. The hedge funds are now enjoying a ride up, J6P is really not on board yet. Market technical are somewhat sitting on the overbought side, but not extreme by any means. Many times we market technicians have drawn a line in the sand in the past 6 months, it was crossed without even any hint of resistance. I say we keep running up into the end of January, with some modest pullbacks to the key moving averages. Then the markets probably froth around until March/April before another summer of doom. BWDIK. I personally do not buy a fundamental case for a bull, but Don Hays (for one) seems to think a spectacular new bull is forming that will shatter all market record highs over the next 10 years.

To: pvz who wrote (17910)	12/1/2002 3:38:48 PM
From: augieboo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

(e) none of the above, or, more precisely, it depends. Pullbacks to the neckline are very common in H&S patterns. Bulkowski, in preparing his Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, found them in 45% of such patterns, and they do not in any way negate the pattern. The possibility remains, however, that the pattern could be negated by a sustained move ABOVE the neckline. What exactly constitutes a sustained move is obviously open to interpretation, But, with a pattern of this duration I would look for a clear indication that an uptrend is occurring above the neckline, perhaps a series of increasingly higher closes above it, or something along those lines. FWIW, here's my chart of the H&S: stockcharts.com[g,a]maclynay[pf][J5062179,Y]&listNum=46