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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: nspolar who wrote (22515)	11/30/2002 10:10:14 PM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Respond to of 36161

Spongebob Squarepants. Love that cartoon ..... :o) eom

To: nspolar who wrote (22515)	12/4/2002 10:17:36 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 36161

nspolar; re: opinions... [Slider, you mind voicing a couple of opinions: 1. What % are you PM's here and what it 'technically' appropriate? I have been 10% or less until very recently. Rapidly rising, probably approaching 20% and will keep adding as long as it goes okay. Might go well over 60% this go. Last major go I started at about 60% and didn't add, just stuck with what I started with and churned that.] ...I'm 50% PM's, 40% Cash, 5% long, 5% short here & have an attractive cost basis to where I'm actually looking to add some "physical" gold & silver on the next substantial pullback. I think what % one holds is based on many different parameters... bottomline: with the still nearly unprecedented number of potential negative geopolitical & economic event catalysts on the horizon and given the "clean/washed" earnings - real PE levels of this market; I think everyone should have 10% in PM's (but, if even 20% of investors did... we'd be at HUI 200 (VBG). I also, waiting to go about another 10-15% short, should this rally take us to DOW 9000-9300ish...and I may also short into momenteum (5-10%) should the technicals indicate another nearterm break under 8,000 coming (when, not if - by the way...). 2. [Assuming the markets peak and head down and keep on heading south, how do you feel OSX, energy (gas) and golds will hold up? Do you think we will get a major rotation to golds this go, for example?] ....Here's a post I made to the Boom Boom Room on the Oil/Energy play on War with Iraq: siliconinvestor.com msgid=18299135 Natural Gas/stocks... has a stronger fundamental underpinning and will do better than Crude levered stocks during the coming downtrun; but they'll be going down along with the broad market and offer little safety imho. My "THING" is to patiently wait for HIGH REWARD/LOW (perhaps moderate) RISK plays in the market to where the sentiment AND the valuation/pricing are both out of whack...and we're certainly not anywhere near there on either crude, or ng stocks. We got there @ $255 GOLD & XAU 45... and we got there back in late '98 with $14 Crude/$1.50 ng & OSX 45. I think Debt Orgy of the late 90's still has a long way to go to unfold. The story of this period that our grandchildren will someday be reading about; is the reckless issuance of debt during the Rubin/Greenpimp era. Everything was bought on credit and that credit was created with unprecedented recklessness... and an unfathomable amount of that debt is not and can not be paid back... and that reality is slowing fracturing it's way thru the marketplace and into the consciousness of this market. The Investment Bankers were given the keys to the Fed & the US Treasury vis a vie' the KING DOLLAR, short-gold carry trade/Derivatives Bubble and the Stock Market/Debt Bubble of the late 90's. History and time will lead us to a bottom. Historic valuations are the roadmap to where the "bottom" lies... and that roadmap tells us we "aint even close" at this time. Personally; the only thinking man's play on Energy; is a small speculative (if one so desires) bet on short-term Crude Futures; if one thinks that Saddam may view his days as numbered and if he is truly mad; unleashes a scorched/earth bio, or nuclear attack...and/or if Al-Quaida decides to lever this with a simultaneous strike on the US involving bio, or a dirty-nuke device. A core position in Gold/PM's gives us leverage to the above scenario anyway...so personally; the ONLY way I would play the War with Iraq/Crude Oil; is on the short-side - should we see a spike in reaction to a bio, or nuclear event driven crisis. I do think that ultimately/post War with Iraq; that Oil Prices fall along with the present nearterm deflationary pressures from a Global economic downturn ...which will continue; as the US is the engine that pulls the global train... and untill the Debt Bubble Deflation plays itself out and untill Greenspans money supply & liquidity ramp turns inflationary (when, not if for Gold)... that the OSX and Crude Oil are heading toward very attractive, ultimate cyclical lows... along with the broad market. Dow 5,000, S&P 500, OSX 35-40/ $10-$15 Crude Oil imho will ultimately be reached; before the necessary inflationary efforts eventually turn the tide...and then I do ultimately think we will get a broad "rotation to gold" - but, not untill it's already moved substantially ($450 +, maybe even $600 before the masses come); as that final rotation will lead to yet another, historical/cyclical - speculative blow off top in Gold & PM's similar to 1980's highs. ...history; learn from it and occasionally ride on the tails of it merely "cyclically" repeating itself. DEBT... still unappreciated, near unfathomed levels of reckless debt created during this Bubble/Orgy are the story here... along with near unprecedented/untested model levels of derivatives and a near equal level of Govm't intervention/stabilization/manipulation...which will only magnify (if not merely delay) the ultimate ending... Greenspan sold out to the Rubinites (Investment Bankers) who orchestrated the greatest transfer of wealth in history... from the investor class, retirement funds, private & public Pensions, from Gold etc - to their pockets. ...there is going to be one helluva ultimate price to pay, to right this ship... and the base fundamental driver to right the ship; is going to be a massive fiat/inflationary ramp... and Gold will ultimately soar to a speculative environment because of it... when, not if. One helluva lot more pain to come imho.... and this is going to be a lull; to where the most $ and sentiment damage is going to be ultimately done by this Bear Market... as people are going to be lured back in; individual investors, mutual fund & Money Managers, along with Public & Private Pension Fund Managers will flee safety and fail to make the moves necessary to right their ship and jump on the equity treadmill once again... and the final boarding for the next severe leg down in this Bear is now occuring.