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Strategies & Market Trends : Quarter to Quarter Aggressive Growth Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (4192)	1/1/2003 10:25:01 AM
From: Jack Hartmann	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6932

Portfolio performance for December was down 5.2%. Down 5.0% for the year. Gilder2002 down 55.2% YTD. Staggering. We will not follow him any more. Three years in a row, he had fared worse than the Nasdaq. Fuel cells/Alt energy down 73.0% since August 2000. Down 3% the month. Gorilla Hunters down 76.1% since December 3, 2000. Down 5 for the month OC-192 down 89.4% since Mid-February 2001. Down 5% for the month. August Additions DISH $20.41 to 22.26 Up 9.0% September Additions AMAT $17.05 to 13.03. Down 23.5% November Additions ETR 43.73 to 45.59. Up 4.2% BEV 3.26 to 2.85. Down 12.5% XOM 34.80 to 34.94. Up 0.4% January Effects ADTK 0.64 to 0.62. Down 3.1% CHRD 1.44 to 1.44. Up 0% VASO 0.97 to 0.94. Down 3.1% Deletions USU $6.70 to 6.12. Down 8.6% HAS 12.82 to 11.89. Down 7.2% BRCD $4.82 to 4.47. Down 7.2% S 27.70 to 23.12. Down 16.5% SCHL 35.89 to 35.58. Down 0.8% GLW 3.24 to 3.22. Down 0.6% CRXA 7.03 to 6.41. Down 8.8% A look if 10K was invested in each stock. 200K Model starts anew each month. 21 Stocks rotated in January. (210K x 1.015)-210K = $3,150 profit or 1.5% profit 17 Stocks rotated in February (170K x -0.111) - 170K = $18,870 loss or -15,720K or down 6.2% YTD on 200K 20 Stocks rotated in March (200K x 1.019) - 200K = $3,800 profit or -11,920 or down 4.7% YTD on 200K 36 Stocks rotated in April (200K x -1.066) - 200K = $13,200 loss or -25,120 or down 12.5% YTD on 200K. 25 Stocks rotated in May (200K x 1.003) - 200K = $600 profit or -24520 or down 12.2% YTD on 200K 25 Stocks rotated in June (250K x -1.035) - 250K = 8750 loss or -$33270 or down 16.6% YTD on 200K 15 Stocks rotated in July. (150K x 121.5)- 150K = 32250 profit or -20 or down 0.1% YTD 200K 21 Stocks rotated in August. (210K x -100.4)- 210K = -840 loss or -860 or down 0.4% YTD on 200K 17 Stocks rotated in Sep-Oct. (170K x-1.064) - 170K = -10880 loss or -11740 YTD or down 5.8% on 200K 12 Stocks rotated in November (140K x 1.065) - 140K = 9100 profit or -2300YTD. 15 stocks rotated in December (150K x-1.052) - 150K = 7800 loss or -10100 CY2002. or 5.0% for a 200K portfolio. Dow – 8,896 to 8341. Down 6.2% for month NASDAQ – 1478 to 1335. Down 9.6% for month S&P500 – 936 to 879. Down 6.0% for month Dow – 10221 to 8,341 Down 18.3% for the year NASDAQ – 1950 to 1335 Down 31.5% for the year S&P500 – 1148 to 879. Down 23.4% for the year For December, the 950 level should be reached by the S&P. Worst December in 50 years. Hard to beileve that beating the S&P 500 by 18% would not lead to a positive year. Yet, a 5% loss is thankful compared to many. It is the seventh year in a row in beating the benchmark. For most the year, we were 50% cash and generally stayed there. The key to not taking crushing losses was to stop losses at a pretermined amount. I found my 10% loss limit getting lower to 8% espoused by O'Neil. If Congress lets dividends get untaxes or 50% lower rate, then the equities will see a surge. I am liking the electric utility and oil sectors as they were the best in the mid 70's. I use that time period since the most other sectors were frustrating to investors at that time. For January, the effected rise should be small. Jack