Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (7385)	12/2/2002 6:30:44 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95487

From Briefing.com: Updated: 03-Dec-02 - General Commentary - In our last review here, we were looking towards two important economic releases set for this week -- the ISM Index (Institute of Supply Management) and the November Employment Report. So Monday morning, we got a look at the first of those two key reports. The ISM Index for November was reported at a weaker than expected 49.2 versus the consensus expectation of 51.0. Now this was the third month below 50.0 for the index, and it's worth noting that the new order component fell to 49.9 from 50.9. So how did the markets respond? Well, following the less-than-stellar data, the Nasdaq failed to hold its its 200-day simple moving average. By the end of the session the index closed with a one-day, six-point advance. Total volume traded remained stronger than average at more than 1.9 billion total shares, while the market internals were slightly bullish -- advancing volume outpaced declining volume by about 5 to 4. At this point, it probably makes sense to place the Nasdaq's current leg higher in context. On the one hand, Monday's close of 1,484 represents a sizeable move at this point -- 165 points off our November 12th bias shift with the Nasdaq at 1,319 -- that's 12.5% in a matter of roughly three weeks. Yet another way to look at it is in terms of our intermediate-term target. On November 18th, we set our intermediate-term target in the range of 1,500 to 1,520. This means that Monday's intraday high of 1,521 has more than satisfied our target level. With that as the backdrop, it's interesting to note that with today's close the index is now roughly 376 points, or 33.9%, off its October 10th bottom at 1,108. So we have a situation in which the Nasdaq has had a great run, and has also touched the upper end of our target range. Yet we also have a market that is sending mixed signals regarding the very near-term bias. More specifically, we have two consecutive sessions in which the index has touched 'higher highs' and then closed towards the lower end of its intraday range. Add to this picture that in Monday's trade activity, the Nasdaq gapped above its 200-day simple moving average at the open, and then failed to hold that level with a close towards its lows. So all in all -- with our target of 1,520 satisfied -- at this point we'll bring our technical stance back to a consolidative bias within the context of a broader leg higher. So again, this suggests that the active trader will want to have an eye on the technical levels as guideposts. Note that this general view of the market was first addressed here in our November 22nd review of the Nasdaq. As a word of caution, keep in mind that if the Nasdaq should somehow manage a clean closing break of its 200-day simple moving average over the next several sessions, the immediate bias would once again turn higher. Looking ahead, just keep in mind that Friday should be another important day in which the headline November Employment Report will be released -- this is the broadest indicator of economic activity released each month. Also keep in mind that the employment data is tied in closely to the consumer, as concerns over softness on the consumer side have become a more prominent argument of market bears. Mike Ashbaugh

To: Return to Sender who wrote (7385)	12/3/2002 8:53:51 AM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95487

From Briefing.com: AOL's disappointing guidance is leading the news, with a Barclays profit warning and a Merrill reduction in its model portfolio equity weighting also weighing on the broad market. The tech news is mostly positive - TXN and CTXS guiding up, B of A sees CSCO quarter tracking above guidance. RFMD RF Micro Device upgraded at WR Hambrecht (12.79) WR Hambrecht upgrades to Buy from Hold based on a more positive outlook on 2003 handset growth of 10-15% in conjunction with the co's growth prospects in WLAN and CDMA. Price target is $17. 7:48AM Numerical Tech cut to Mkt Perform at Adams Harkness following CEO resignation (NMTC) 5.49: 7:45AM Ciena: optical switching market may be picking up - Deutsche (CIEN) 6.62: Deutsche Securities says that recent conversations with industry contacts suggest that there is a significant amount of mkt activity around optical switching products, which is incrementally positive for CIEN; RFPs seem to be underway at VZ, FON, British Telecom, DT, Telecom Italia, FTE, and Telefonica, and firm expects many of these deals to be awarded over the next several months. Maintains Hold on CIEN due to valuation. 7:40AM Oak Tech upgraded at Adams Harkness (OAKT) 3.30: Adams Harkness upgrades to Buy from Mkt Perform based on the co's prospects within the emerging digital TV and imaging mkts, anticipated restructuring within its optical division, and the increased valuations within the multimedia IC group overall. 7:11AM AOL Time Warner faces risks in broadband strategy - WSJ (AOL) 16.57: -- Update -- The Wall Street Journal's "Heard on the Street column" reports that AOL faces significant risks in its new broadband strategy, as competitor ELNK's so-far unprofitable broadband rollout indicates; in addition, AOL's existing dial-up customers will continue to face competition from low-priced offerings from co's such as UNTD; AOL is expected to reveal the strategy today. 7:06AM AOL Time Warner sees 15-25% EBITDA decline for online unit in 2003 (AOL) 16.57: Company sees full year EBITDA growth at the low end of the 5-9% range with revenues in the 5-8% range. America Online division reaffirms its 2002 guidance of $8.8-9.0 bln in revenues and $1.7-1.8 bln EBITDA; but sets 2003 guidance for the unit of flat revenues but a 15-25% decline in EBITDA due to a decline in high margin advertising and commerce revenues. finance.yahoo.com^SOXX+ALTR+AMAT+AMD+AOL+BRCM+CHRT+CIEN+CSCO+CTXS+EMC+INTC+ISIL+KLAC+LLTC+LSCC+LSI+MOT+MU+MXIM+NMTC+NSM+NVLS+OAKT+QLGC+RFMD+SLAB+TER+TXN+XLNX+^VIX+^VXN+^IXIC+^NDX+^SPX+SMH&d=t RtS