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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (22582)	12/2/2002 9:33:06 PM
From: Canuck Dave	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Great point, JW. I noticed it today too, but forgot to post it. Wanted to see which of the components was driving it. The CRB index is half of the dwindling profit potential of US manufacturing, the other component being overcapacity from cheap overseas competition. Equals profitless recovery. Say hello to stagflation again. CD

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (22582)	12/3/2002 10:28:20 AM
From: isopatch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Jim. It is. Will FED prevail against a strong secular trend in the global economy? No. Will there be counter trend periods of inflation? Yes. Every major multi-cycle secular trend has counter trend interruptions to keep the majority wrong. They serve the same purpose as a powerful market rally in a cyclical Bear Market. But, adjusting our temporal sense to the much longer secular time frame, the inflationary interruptions will likely be longer than a few months. I'd watch for the FED to slam on the breaks again after about 6-9 months of moderate inflation stats and a spurt of economic growth. Then, it's back to the powerful primary secular trend to lower prices, lower wages, etc, etc. In the meantime<g>, we are correctly positioned on this thread to maximize profits. JMVVHO, of course. Isopatch