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Technology Stocks : FirstWave Technologies (FSTW) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Oeconomicus who wrote (6938)	12/3/2002 5:46:00 PM
From: TEDennis	Respond to of 9677

Wow. Good detective work, Bob. I don't see anything in your computations that appear out of whack. Which means that FSTW's new partner's data is way out of whack. I sure hope that FSTW didn't partner with knoa as a result of revenue projections based on those numbers. "Firstwave and knoa form an ideal synergy for a conjoined marketing and sales strategy," said Brian Manzo, Vice President of Strategic Sales and Alliances for knoa Corporation. The focus of collaboration will be in Firstwave's target market, the world's middle market sector, representing 13-16 million companies in the United States with revenues of $25 million to $5 billion dollars. firstwave.net Is it just me, or do others here think it's pretty careless of FSTW to allow a misleading statement like that to slip through the corporate review process and be exposed to the world? Regards, TED

To: Oeconomicus who wrote (6938)	12/3/2002 5:55:18 PM
From: The Vet	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9677

An OT aside on market numbers.. Way back in the dim dark ages I actually invented and produced an affordable electronic system for intensive care monitoring for veterinary surgeons. This device was great, and a huge advance on anything else on the market. I sold through a wholesaler who, for the first 3 months was pressuring me to increase production in order to meet his "huge" backlog of orders! Suddenly in the fifth month of production he called me and cancelled his next 3 months forward orders. He had sold a total of around 1,400 of these devices in four months but on a more careful examination of the market by examining the government lists of registered veterinary surgeons (I was selling in Australia) it became painfully obvious that the total number of possible buyers only slightly exceeded 1,500. I had in four months got 93% of the possible market but that was it. It didn't wear out, required no maintenance and only one was ever needed by each vet surgeon. The lessons of not doing proper market research before commencing production were brought home with a thump. At the sales rates of that first four months a very comfortable retirement before I attained the age of 35 seemed assured but sadly it was not to be....

To: Oeconomicus who wrote (6938)	12/3/2002 8:44:12 PM
From: TEDennis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9677

Interesting .... July 23, 2002: Intuitive Web Interface Highlights Firstwave’s eCRM Suite v.8 In a sweeping revamp of the ‘look and feel’ of its flagship product, Firstwave® Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:FSTW) has introduced version 8.0 of its eCRM Suite, a powerful, web-based, strategic customer relationship management (CRM) solution for companies that want to enjoy the benefits of CRM without all of the hassles. firstwave.net OK, so FSTW now has a really spiffy and intuitive user interface. But, not intuitive enough, I guess. September 16, 2002: knoa Corporation ("knoa Corp") builds products to connect people to their technology. knoa's Client and Server platform provides a patented software suite that delivers intelligent data that makes other software applications intuitive. " firstwave.net First of all, for one application to make another application intuitive is a pretty good trick. Just tracking and capturing mouse movements and keystrokes doesn't make an application intuitive. Just providing that data in a usable format doesn't make an application intuitive. It takes a person who is experienced at User Interface design, and who understands the business processes wherein an application will be used. Only a person of that caliber can design a system so that anybody who uses the application will know intuitively what their next action should be. If I understand knoa's solution, it enables somebody (a developer, presumably) to take input data captured during a prior product usage and feed it to the application at appropriate times under specific conditions ... essentially guiding the user along the way. [Side note: it's common practice to tie disparate applications together via utilities that capture the output of one application, massage it with a scripting language (like REXX, for instance), then feed it to another application. But, I don't think that's the capability that is being discussed here.] I can see that working for highly repetitive applications, like call centers where the customer service rep works from a script. And, it would make sense if there is a specific set of reports or queries to run every day (just about any basic scripting tool could do that) But, how does that work within an application like CRM where what the user does next is dependent on customer data, and a mental process? Does knoa's "patent pending" technology have a way to read minds? Perhaps knoa will only be used within FSTW's call center application? But, that's not how the PR reads. "A major hitch in CRM initiatives is getting the end-users to use the system. knoa's real-time, intuitive training solutions make the user experience easier and more enjoyable thus increasing the user acceptance rate. This cuts the learning curve tremendously and allows our clients to see a more immediate return on their CRM investment." Does this PR mean that FSTW is just going to add an automated training tool to their market basket? If so, I wonder whether they're going to make that available with Version 8's fancy new intuitive interface, or the new .NET version? Since V8 is so intuitive, maybe training isn't necessary. So, this is only for the .NET version? That must mean that the .NET version is a step backward? [That's a joke, son ... laugh!] I also wonder what kind of revenue sharing arrangements were made. Is FSTW acting as a reseller of knoa's product, thus getting commissions for installations that choose the "knoa option"? Or will FSTW physically embed knoa's technology within FSTW's application, in which case it would make more sense that FSTW pay knoa a license fee. Questions, questions, questions. Without knowing the answers to those questions, how could anyone come up with a reasonably accurate projection of the impact this "strategic partnership" has on FSTW's bottom line? Just rely on analysts, I guess. I wonder how many analysts understand what this "strategic partnership" is all about? Regards, TED

To: Oeconomicus who wrote (6938)	12/4/2002 10:31:03 AM
From: Bob Trocchi	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9677

Bob... >>addressable market<< I am one of those guys that people like Dilbert and TED "hate." I was in marketing. I like to think however that I was somewhat more realistic. When I was at DEC for many years, they had a requirement which in marketing plans that called for your market share of the addressable market. I used to argue that the addressable market share was always 100% and get laughed out of the room. I know I was kidding but think about it. 1. You start with some number of potential customers of a certain size. 2. Then you must reduce that number for the number of customers that you can actually contact 3. Then you must reduce it again for the number of customers who for whatever reason are simply not in the market for a new piece of SW 4. Then you reduce it again for the number of customers that simply decide that they will delay getting a system at the present time and apologize for the lost time you spent preparing a proposal. 5. Then you reduce it again for the number of customers that have been contacted by a competitor who is selling a similar product for a lot less money or that your product simply is not compatible with their other systems. 6. Finally you make a sale and by gosh that is your addressable market!!! Addressable markets are a useful planning tool to alert you to what you must do to actually play in that market space. It should never be used as a market projection tool or a PR tool IMO. Cheers and GO FSTW Bob T.